With an MLB lockout looming, the Blue Jays are in a tricky spot as they sort through their offseason roster decisions, and the Rule 5 Draft could turn into one of the more delicate parts of the whole process.
The draft is scheduled for Dec. 9, but clubs have to make their protection calls by Nov. 17.
That deadline lands about two weeks before the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires, which opens the door to a lockout. If that happens, any player already on a 40-man roster would not be able to use team facilities or resources while the stoppage is in effect.
That wrinkle could push some teams to gamble. Leaving certain players unprotected would keep them off the 40-man roster, which would allow those players to keep using organizational resources and even play if the lockout stretches into spring. Minor League Baseball would not be affected.
For Toronto, two names stand out as clear adds no matter what happens with the labor situation: infielder Josh Kasevich and pitcher Nolan Perry.
Kasevich was Buffalo’s Most Valuable Player in 2026, hitting .282/.364/.363 with a .727 OPS while providing strong defense at Triple-A. Perry, meanwhile, put together a 2.50 ERA and a 36 percent strikeout rate over 82.2 innings in Double-A New Hampshire after coming back from Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays would be taking too much of a chance by leaving either one exposed, because both would almost certainly draw interest in the Rule 5 Draft.
Kasevich, ranked No. 13 and Perry, ranked No. 2 by MLB.com Pipeline among Toronto’s top 30 prospects, are not the only eligible players worth watching. Also in the mix are pitchers Gage Stanifer and Daniel Guerra, outfielders RJ Schreck and Victor Arias, and utilityman Jay Harry.
There are other notable names as well: outfielders Nick Goodwin and Jace Bohrofen, infielders Tucker Toman and Peyton Williams, and pitchers Brandon Barriera and Yondrei Rojas. Rojas and Barriera are trying to strengthen their cases with strong showings in the Arizona Fall League.
The catch is that protecting everyone comes with a cost. A roster spot used now could end up feeling wasted if the Rule 5 Draft is canceled or if there are no MLB games until the lockout is over.
That happened in the 2021-2022 lockout, when that offseason’s Rule 5 Draft was canceled. But that lockout lasted into March 2022, which means a draft could still be rescheduled if this one ends later in the offseason.
That possibility is why the Blue Jays have to tread carefully. If a rescheduled draft happens, an unprotected player could still be lost. So Toronto may have to accept some risk.
A few candidates could be left off and still survive, including Arias and Bohrofen, who may need more minor-league time. Schreck missed a lot of the season because of injury, so he seems less likely to be picked.
Toman and Williams also look like players Toronto could potentially leave exposed, though Williams brings serious power. Barriera has the stuff, but staying healthy has been the issue.
Then there are the players who sit squarely in the danger zone. Harry reached Triple-A in 2025 and hit 14 home runs while slashing .298/.343/.495.
Goodwin posted an .827 OPS. Guerra turned in a 3.33 ERA with a 32.3 percent strikeout rate.
Stanifer worked more than 100 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Guerra and Stanifer could be the next Spencer Miles, just for another team, or they could keep developing in Triple-A while the majors are shut down.
Toronto’s roster math is already tight. The club has as many as seven players on the 60-day injured list and only 37 players on the roster right now. And with the Blue Jays looking to add power and more offense this winter, every spot matters.
Players are Rule 5 eligible if they signed at 18 and have five years of professional experience, or if they signed at 19 and have four years in pro ball. College players selected in the 2023 MLB Draft and amateur free agents who signed in 2022 are also eligible.
The draft order is based on the reverse order of the 2025 standings, and teams can pass when their turn comes up. The draft ends once all 30 clubs pass.
There is also a minor-league phase of the Rule 5 Draft that targets players in the lower minors for an organization’s Triple-A team, and that portion will go ahead no matter what happens with the lockout.
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