We’ve been running this exercise for a few years now: take the top free agents, plug in the contract Ben Clemens projects, and ask whether the Jays should be in on that deal. The lockout makes the process a little messier this time around, but the question still stands. Keith Law’s ranking is here, and Ben Clemens’ is here.
Trevor Rogers lands third on Clemens’ list, which is higher than I’d have him, and also well above Law’s placement at 13th. Still, he’s worth a close look.
Rogers turns 29 on Friday. The left-hander has spent seven seasons in the majors, made 132 starts, and posted a 34-48 record with a 3.88 ERA.
He’s also coming off the best two-year stretch of his career, with 7.5 bWAR across 48 games. Most of that value came from his 18 starts in 2025.
In 2026, he went 10-11 with a 4.03 ERA in 30 starts. FanGraphs, meanwhile, had him at 4.0 WAR in 2026 and 3.3 in 2025.
The appeal is obvious enough: Rogers has only really put it together over the last couple of seasons, but those seasons were good ones. The concern is just as clear.
His injury history is unsettling, and he doesn’t look like the first pitcher I’d rush to hand a contract to. At the same time, the Jays do have some arms in the upper minors who could step in if he misses time.
Clemens sees a starter with the kind of traits teams chase in free agency. “Rogers has what teams want in a free agent starter.
He’s currently effective - by fWAR, he was the second-best pitcher in this class in 2026, and a whole alphabet full of advanced ERA estimators agree. He has plus stuff and plus command, and he’s currently doing it with a ton of four-seamers, which means that any number of pitch design teams will think they can kick things up a notch.
And he’ll be entering his age-29 season next year, which makes him one of the youngest free agents on the board in addition to being one of the best.”
Law’s read is more cautious, and the biggest issue is the shape of Rogers’ arsenal. “He still doesn’t have a clear identity as a pitcher; his changeup, once his best offspeed pitch and still effective in 2025, was awful this past year, worth minus-12 runs by Statcast’s pitch metrics, enough to make it one of the 20 worst pitches in MLB.
As a result, right-handers smoked him for 18 homers in 169 2/3 innings, versus just one allowed to lefties. He’s had big platoon splits before, but in bad years, not good ones.
Can a new team help him regain the tumble on that changeup to make him a real three-pitch starter who has plus control? And maybe mix in more sinkers and fewer four-seamers to make him less of the flyball-oriented pitcher he was in 2026?
There’s a lot of potential here, and he can at least offer some reliability after three years without any arm injuries.”
Clemens projects Rogers to get four years at $26 million per season, for a total of $104 million. That’s a hefty bet on a pitcher who comes with real risk, and Clemens says as much: free agent pitchers are risky, and Rogers looks riskier than most.
In Other News...
Blue Jays Are Suddenly Dealing With A Santander Controversy
Anthony Santanders offseason has already been complicated by the shoulder surgery that has kept him sidelined, and now the Blue Jays are dealing with an off-field issue as well. General manager Ross Atkins said he was disappointed by Santander resharing videos on social media and made clear he has already addressed the matter directly with the outfielder, whose arrival in Toronto came on a five-year contract meant to add impact to the lineup.
Atkins framed the situation as a values issue for the organization, saying the comments and posts do not reflect what the Blue Jays stand for. The controversy adds another layer to a stretch in which Toronto has been waiting on Santanders health and availability, while also having to navigate the fallout from a social-media decision that has drawn unwanted attention to a player the club was counting on. [Read more 🡒]
Blue Jays Face A Familiar Kevin Gausman Decision Again
Kevin Gausman is already back in the conversation around Toronto, and not just because of what he has meant to the rotation over the past few seasons. MLB Trade Rumors recently slotted him 18th among the top free agents for the 2026-27 offseason, a reminder that his track record and durability still make him one of the more recognizable arms on the market. For the Blue Jays, it is another familiar checkpoint with a pitcher whose fit in Toronto has long felt natural, even as the calendar keeps moving toward another round of roster planning.
The wrinkle, of course, is that this is the kind of decision that can look obvious from the outside and still end up going in a different direction. MLBTRs discussion of Gausmans market included Toronto as a likely landing spot, but also left room for other possibilities, including Baltimore, where he has his own history. For the Blue Jays, the bigger issue is not whether Gausman still belongs in the conversation. It is whether the front office is ready to make the same bet again when the offseason finally arrives. [Read more 🡒]
Blue Jays Make A Surprising Coaching Change After A Disappointing Season
The Blue Jays have made a notable behind-the-scenes change as they begin sorting through the fallout from a disappointing season. General manager Ross Atkins confirmed the club has dismissed mental skills coach John Lannan, a move that stands out because it comes from a part of the staff that is usually out of the spotlight but still tied to how a team handles the grind of a long year.
Lannan had been in the organization since 2020 and was elevated to the major league staff in 2024, so his departure marks a fairly quick end to that run in Torontos dugout structure. Atkins said no other coaching changes have been announced at this point, leaving the Blue Jays offseason staffing picture with one clear move and a lot still to be determined. [Read more 🡒]