The Blue Jays have put themselves in a strange but very real place: alive in the American League playoff chase while sitting at 63-66, only 0.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot after a rare series win over the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.
That’s the backdrop for the rest of their season, and it’s a very different picture than what the National League would offer. In the NL, Toronto would be 5.5 games back of the last Wild Card spot and effectively out of it. In the AL, with about five weeks left, they’re still right there.
The number that keeps coming up is 85. The 2017 Minnesota Twins currently hold the record for the fewest wins needed to grab an AL Wild Card berth, and that mark looks likely to fall this year. For Toronto, getting there would mean a 22-11 finish over their last 33 games.
That kind of run would almost certainly get the job done, especially with the remaining schedule filled with teams sitting below .500. But asking a club to win two out of every three games is a steep ask no matter who’s on the other side. Baseball has a way of flattening the best-laid plans - one bad hop, one dominant outing from a pitcher, and a win can disappear fast.
A more reasonable target might be 83 wins, which would require a 20-13 finish. If the Blue Jays can’t play something close to .600 baseball over the next five weeks, it’s fair to wonder whether they belong in the postseason picture at all. Even then, 83 might not be enough.
The problem is the tiebreakers. Toronto has already lost the season series against the Minnesota Twins and the Texas Rangers, even though three games remain with Texas. The outcomes against the Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Guardians are still unresolved, and those head-to-head games could end up deciding everything.
That makes the margin for error razor thin. Every win matters now, and John Schneider will have to manage like it. The Blue Jays can’t keep handing away games with avoidable mistakes, including poor defensive play, and expect to survive the race.
At this point, 83 wins should keep them in the mix until the very end. Push that to 84 or 85, and their chances improve a lot - especially if the tiebreaker math starts getting involved.
In Other News...
Blue Jays Are Getting An Unexpected Boost From A Familiar Arm
Simeon Woods Richardson is back in the Blue Jays organization after a quick detour through waivers, and Toronto has gotten far more than a depth arm since the right-hander returned. Reacquired after being designated for assignment and clearing waivers, he has given the club six outings and 16.2 innings of rare stability, a useful stretch for a staff that can always use innings from someone already familiar with the system.
The wrinkle, of course, is that the results have outpaced the underlying numbers, which leaves some uncertainty about how long this run can last. Woods Richardson was once a notable piece of the trade that sent him to Minnesota, but his time with the Twins never really took hold before he was released. For now, though, Toronto is simply enjoying the boost, even if the longer-term outlook remains a little murkier than the early returns suggest. [Read more 🡒]
Blue Jays Face A September Call-Up Choice That Could Boost The Lineup
MLB rosters will expand from 26 to 28 players in just over a week, and that means the Blue Jays will soon have a chance to add a little more depth for the September push. Toronto is expected to weigh several internal options, with prospects Jay Harry, Yohendrick Pinango and Sean Keys all putting together strong minor league seasons and putting themselves in the conversation for a call-up.
For a club chasing a playoff spot, the question is not just who deserves the look, but who can give the lineup a needed spark without disrupting the rest of the roster. A September promotion can be more than a reward for good work in the minors. It can also be the difference between carrying extra organizational depth and bringing in a player who gives the Blue Jays another offensive option when the games start to matter most. [Read more 🡒]
Blue Jays Keep Winning The Hard Way As Pressure Builds
The Blue Jays keep finding ways to win, but it is happening the hard way. Toronto has been piling up hits and generating plenty of traffic on the bases, only to leave too many chances hanging early in games, which has kept a lot of nights tighter than the raw offensive volume would suggest. For a club trying to stay in the thick of the race, the pattern has made every inning feel a little more urgent than it should.
John Schneider has already pointed to the issue in plain terms, noting the clubs struggles to cash in with runners in scoring position. That has turned a lineup with enough activity to matter into one that often has to wait for late-game hits to separate itself, and it leaves little margin when the pressure rises. The numbers are still good enough to keep Toronto in games, but the next step is turning all those opportunities into a little more breathing room. [Read more 🡒]