The Blue Jays’ infield-hit issue looks strange on the surface, and the numbers back that up. As of Sept.
9, Toronto had allowed an MLB-high 143 infield hits excluding bunts, according to Sportsnet. That kind of total would usually point to a defense that’s having trouble turning routine-looking grounders into outs.
But that’s not really what’s going on here. Entering Tuesday, the Blue Jays ranked fifth in total defensive runs saved, ninth in outs above average, second in fielding run value, and first in catcher framing according to Fangraphs. In other words, this is a good defensive team that happens to be carrying one very odd blemish.
A closer look at the infield suggests the problem may be less about one glaring flaw and more about a few specific ones. Start with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto’s half-billion-dollar slugger.
He ranks 56th among MLB defenders in Outs Above Average and fifth among first basemen, according to Statcast. His directional splits are telling: Guerrero has been worth seven OAA moving to his left and has been neutral moving to his right, but sits at -2 when coming in on the baseball.
That last part matters. First base is a spot built on reactions and short bursts more than raw speed, and charging a ball demands quick reads and enough explosiveness to beat the runner. Guerrero ranks in just the 26th percentile in sprint speed, which may make those plays harder to finish and leave more softly hit balls alive for infield hits.
Ernie Clement presents a different case. He took a little more digging to find in Statcast’s database, which is a surprise given how strong his glove looked last season.
This year, though, he ranks 32nd among second basemen with -4 OAA. He has been neutral when charging balls, but his biggest issue has been moving to his left, where his -7 OAA is the worst mark among second basemen.
Speed doesn’t appear to be the explanation. Clement sits in the 70th percentile in sprint speed, which makes it harder to argue that Toronto’s infield-hit problem is simply about a lack of athleticism.
He also played more third base than second last season, so the issue may be how his skills fit the middle infield rather than a lack of footspeed.
The move that pushed Clement to second base came because of Toronto’s Japanese import, Kazuma Okamoto, who ranks 33rd out of 43 third basemen with -3 OAA. His directional splits show trouble to his right, where he sits at -4 OAA, and back toward the outfield, where he is at -2.
That profile looks a lot like Guerrero’s. For both corner infielders, the issue doesn’t seem to be straight-line speed so much as quickness in small spaces, reaction time, and lateral movement. Those are the skills that matter most when the play is coming fast and the margin is tiny.
Andrés Giménez is the counterpoint. He ranks second among shortstops with 19 OAA, trailing only Bobby Witt Jr.
Giménez is in the 60th percentile in sprint speed, so he is not one of the game’s absolute burners, but his range has still been elite. He has seven OAA when charging balls, a strong number even if it trails shortstops such as Witt, Geraldo Perdomo and Masyn Winn.
His positioning and his ability to read the ball make him one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball.
So the simple speed-and-range theory doesn’t hold up. Giménez is proof of that.
Toronto’s infield-hit problem looks more complicated than a lack of athleticism or a single weak link. The better read is that the Blue Jays have a handful of specific defensive issues that, together, are producing an unusually high number of infield hits allowed.
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