Tarik Skubal is shaping up to be the headliner of the offseason, and the Blue Jays are already being floated as a team that could jump into the middle of the bidding.
The two-time Cy Young winner stands alone as the top name headed toward free agency, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan has already suggested his next deal could reset the market for pitchers. The number being tossed around is staggering: more than $500 million over 10 years.
That kind of price tag would make anybody pause, even for a pitcher who has been as dominant as Skubal. He posted a 2.50 FIP between the Dodgers and Tigers this year, but he’ll be 30-years-old by the time he takes the mound for his next club, assuming the Dodgers even let him reach free agency.
So the familiar question is coming fast: is he worth it?
Only a small group of teams will even have the financial muscle to chase him, especially with a lockout looming. Toronto is one of those clubs, though there hasn’t been much chatter linking the Blue Jays to Skubal so far.
Still, the idea isn’t crazy. Toronto already showed at the trade deadline that it’s willing to make serious moves to upgrade the rotation, even if the club sold.
The Jays traded Arjun Nimmala for José Soriano, though that was a very different situation. Soriano is under team control through 2028, while Skubal would be a rental.
By landing Soriano, the Blue Jays signaled that they plan to keep building their rotation for the future. They already have Soriano, Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, and a collection of notable prospects to work with. But if Skubal becomes available at the right price, it would be hard to imagine Toronto walking away.
Dallas Braden of the Baseball Is Dead podcast isn’t an “insider,” but as a former pitcher with plenty of connections around the game, his take is worth hearing. And his suggestion on Skubal’s market doesn’t sound outlandish. Toronto went big on Cease just one year ago, despite him being 30 and coming off a rough season, and that move is paying off so far.
Paying more than twice as much as they gave Cease for Skubal would be a much bigger leap. Even so, the lockout could push the left-hander’s eventual price into more manageable territory. If that happens, a bidding war with the Dodgers could be in play.
At the very least, the Blue Jays have made a habit of chasing the biggest names available in free agency. And there may not be a bigger one on the market than Skubal.
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