The Blue Jays are heading into July in a far murkier spot than they were a year ago, and that changes everything about how the trade deadline could unfold.
Last season, Toronto came in as a clear buyer, chasing both a division title and a deeper run. The front office added pieces all over the roster and made no secret of its direction.
This time, the picture is far less clean. The club is still hanging around .500, and that leaves the deadline open to two very different outcomes: a push to reinforce the roster, or a slide that turns into a sale.
Toronto sits at 40-45, well behind where it was at this point last year, when it was 47-38. The Jays are third in the American League East, and the playoff math is not exactly comforting.
Their odds entering Monday were 27.9 percent at FanGraphs and 17.4 percent at Baseball Reference. If the season ended Tuesday, they’d be on the outside looking in.
That makes the next few weeks critical, especially with a major series looming. Toronto’s biggest test before the deadline comes in a four-game set against the Tampa Bay Rays starting July 20, more than a week before the deadline itself. It’s the kind of stretch that could shape whether the Jays lean in or start thinking about moving pieces.
Right now, the roster needs are pretty plain. Even after entering spring with what looked like two full rotations’ worth of arms, starting pitching depth is still an issue.
General manager Ross Atkins recently pointed to the rotation as the most obvious area to address, ideally by adding an optionable depth arm who can be sent to Triple A. Offensively, the Jays could also use an outfielder who handles left-handed pitching.
The organization’s deadline history suggests they’re usually not shy about acting. Over the last five years, when Toronto has been in the hunt, it has typically made two or three meaningful moves at the deadline, often touching the rotation, bullpen and lineup in the process.
Last year brought Shane Bieber, Louis Varland and Ty France. In 2023, the Jays added Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong.
The year before, they brought in Mitch White, Anthony Bass, Zach Pop and Whit Merrifield.
And those moves haven’t always been limited to short-term rentals. Toronto has often targeted players with more than one year of control, which is why names like Varland and Merrifield fit the pattern. So if the Jays do buy again, the market shouldn’t be narrowed to expiring contracts.
But there’s another path, and it’s not a pretty one. If Toronto’s playoff odds fall below 10 percent near the deadline, as they did in 2024, this front office has shown it’s willing to move impending free agents and sell off what it can.
So what decides the direction? A collapse would have to be real.
With a massive payroll and the memory of a World Series run still hanging over Rogers Centre, the Jays would need to tumble hard to become deadline sellers. The AL wild-card race is messy enough that a disastrous July would probably be required.
Still, it’s not hard to see why the front office might hesitate to go all-in if the team keeps floating on the fringe. A strong midsummer run could convince management to spend for a legitimate mid-rotation starter and a power right-handed bat. If not, the safer move may be to patch holes and hope the roster holds together.
For now, the likeliest outcome is the familiar Blue Jays buying deadline.
And if Toronto is going to make a real second-half push, the biggest lift may not come from the market at all. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer getting back to their 2025 form would do more than any trade addition.
Even so, Atkins can still help by adding around the edges, giving the club a better chance to reach October. After that, the Jays would need to find some of that postseason magic again.
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Blue Jays Prospect Nolan Perry Just Reached A Telling Test
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The rise has extra meaning because Perry is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery in late 2024, a setback that wiped out his entire 2025 season and made this his first full year back on the mound. MLB Pipeline currently has him ranked 15th in the organization, and the next stretch at Double-A will go a long way toward showing how far this comeback can carry him. [Read more 🡒]