The Blue Jays are heading into the winter with a pretty clear shopping list: more pop in the lineup and more reliable innings from the rotation. That makes free agency a tempting place to hunt for help, but it also means Toronto can’t afford to chase the wrong names just because they’re familiar or flashy.
That’s where the real decision-making starts for Ross Atkins. In free agency, it’s never just about whether a player is good.
It’s about whether the fit, the price, and the upside all line up. For Toronto, these five options don’t.
Luis Arraez is the first name to pump the brakes on. He put together a strong 2026 season, hitting .310 and somehow turning himself into an elite second baseman after years of defensive issues.
But the Blue Jays’ problem isn’t contact for contact’s sake. They need more power, and Arraez is still the kind of slap hitter who doesn’t barrel the ball enough to solve that issue.
There’s also the question of whether his defensive improvement sticks in 2027, especially since athleticism has never been his calling card.
Teruaki Sato brings a different kind of risk. Japanese hitters can be tough to project once they arrive from NPB, and the source of the uncertainty here is pretty obvious: Sato has serious power, but he also swings and misses a lot.
Unlike Kazuma Okamoto, who was expected to be a bat-to-ball hitter and ended up drawing down-ballot Rookie of the Year votes as a three-true-outcome bat, Sato doesn’t appear to balance the strikeouts with enough walks. That kind of profile can produce some huge nights, but it can also disappear for stretches.
Freddy Peralta is less of a talent question than a money question. Projections have him landing somewhere in the $25-$30 million per year range on a four- or five-year deal, and that’s a number Toronto should think twice about.
He did rebound in the second half with the Tampa Bay Rays, but the underlying metrics didn’t really change much. The bigger takeaway from 2026 is that his floor is too shaky to justify paying him like a true frontline starter.
Alec Bohm belongs on the avoid list for a different reason: he’s just not enough of a difference-maker in any one area. He’s not an impact bat, he’s not a plus defender, and he’s not a great baserunner.
Yes, he drove in 88 runs in 2026, but that kind of production can be tied to situation as much as skill. For a Blue Jays team trying to get back into postseason contention, that’s not the place to spend.
Shane Bieber is the toughest one to rule out emotionally, but the logic is hard to ignore. He was ineffective or injured for most of 2026, and the bigger issue is that he hasn’t been healthy in years.
Toronto needs starting pitching it can count on, not another arm that could force the bullpen into heavy lifting again. If the Jays are going to roll the dice on health, the upside has to be bigger than this.
Taken together, these five names all carry enough risk that Toronto should be looking elsewhere. The Blue Jays need power, they need innings, and they need to spend with purpose.
Big money alone won’t fix the roster. Smart money might.
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When the Blue Jays moved on from Jeff Hoffman as closer early in the 2026 season, the bullpen picture changed quickly, and Louis Varland was the arm who stepped into the spotlight. What followed was more than a temporary fix. Varland stabilized the late innings for Toronto and turned a midseason adjustment into one of the seasons best relief stories, finishing with 35 saves, a 1.27 ERA and 97 strikeouts over 78 innings.
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Arias, 23, has been one of the more interesting names in the system after a solid run in the minors and winter ball, while Stephan arrived in the organization in a trade with the Texas Rangers and is still looking to get his footing. Both will head into camp with a chance to show they belong in the picture, and for Toronto, the appeal is simple: low-cost depth now, with a little upside if either player takes a step forward. [Read more 🡒]