The AL Cy Young race has settled into a two-man fight, and the next round comes with both contenders taking the ball in the Bronx.
Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease both sharpened their cases last weekend, even if the Yankees and Blue Jays lineups didn’t exactly roll out the red carpet. Schlittler limited Toronto to one run over 5 1/3 innings on Saturday, striking out seven. A day later, Cease answered with one of his own big-time outings, allowing two runs in 6 1/3 innings while punching out 10 of the 24 hitters he faced.
Schlittler’s appeal starts with the most Cy Young-friendly number of all: runs prevented. His most recent start was his 18th this season in which he’s gone at least five innings and allowed no more than one earned run, and that’s more than two-thirds of his outings.
Tarik Skubal had 17 such starts when he won the award in 2024 and 19 in 2025. Schlittler still has seven or eight starts left, which only strengthens the case he’s built all year.
His 2.19 ERA leads the AL, and he’s only a few innings behind Michael Wacha for the league lead.
Cease has pushed his way back into the picture by missing bats at a ridiculous rate. His 201 strikeouts lead the American League, and his latest double-digit strikeout game was his ninth of the season.
It was also the 15th time he’s fanned more than one-third of the hitters he’s faced. The swing-and-miss stuff has always been there, but the improved changeup has taken it to another level.
The result: elite ERA estimators across the board. No qualified AL pitcher has a better FIP, xFIP, or xERA.
Still, the Cy Young usually comes back to ERA, not the fancy stuff. Nine of the last 10 winners led their league in ERA.
Sandy Alcantara was the lone exception in 2022, when he won with the NL’s second-best mark because he piled up so many more innings than everyone else. That’s why Schlittler has been the favorite for months.
But Cease has made the race a lot tighter lately. Since returning from a brief IL stint in June, he has posted a sub-2.00 ERA in 12 starts.
Before the All-Star break, he carried a no-hitter into the ninth against the Giants. Two outings later, he carved up a scorching Red Sox club in what may have been the most dominant AL pitching performance of the season: 9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 12 K.
The gap that once separated them has shrunk fast. Through the end of May, Cease’s ERA sat at 3.05 while Schlittler was at 1.50.
Now the difference is less than a quarter of a run, and Cease is even averaging slightly more innings per start. With six weeks left, there’s enough time for that gap to narrow further.
Schlittler still has the edge, and if the season ended today, he’d almost certainly take home the trophy. But Cease has the better recent run, the numbers underneath the surface are just as strong, and he brings a longer résumé with him.
The 25-year-old Schlittler is in his first full major league season and has already logged more innings than in any previous year of his professional career. What he’s done is remarkable.
He still has to prove he can carry it through the finish line. Cease, meanwhile, already owns two top-five Cy Young finishes and has been through the grind before.
Since 2021, no big-league pitcher has started more games, and his 3.27 ERA in September/October is his lowest in any month.
They’re not the only starters with strong cases. Sonny Gray of the Red Sox leads the AL with 15 wins, and his 2.65 ERA would be the best of his career.
Parker Messick of the Guardians has a 2.59 ERA that would be the lowest by a qualified AL rookie in 50 years. Drew Rasmussen of the Rays has limited opponents to a .247 OBP, besting just about everyone at keeping traffic off the bases.
Even so, Schlittler and Cease remain the clear headliners. They’re the top two pitchers in ERA, xERA, FIP, SIERA, and every version of WAR.
Schlittler brings the higher ceiling; Cease brings the steadier track record. Someone else could still jump into the conversation, but right now the race looks like it belongs to those two.
And they’ll get another chance to sort it out this weekend, with both scheduled to pitch in the Bronx: Schlittler on Friday night, Cease on Saturday afternoon.
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