Texas Tech Outmuscled by UCF-Again-as Familiar Problems Resurface
Texas Tech’s trip to Orlando wasn’t just another tough Big 12 road game-it was a reminder of a matchup that continues to frustrate the Red Raiders. For the third time in four meetings, UCF came out on top, this time with an 88-80 win that felt even more lopsided than the score suggests.
Let’s be clear: this wasn’t a fluke. UCF brought the same formula that’s worked in past matchups-physicality, relentless effort, and a nose for the boards-and Texas Tech simply didn’t have an answer.
The Knights dominated the glass, outrebounding the Red Raiders 35-23, including a staggering 13 offensive rebounds on 33 missed shots. That’s not just a stat; it’s a storyline.
And the difference wasn’t just about size-it was about want-to. Far too often, Texas Tech players looked flat-footed as rebounds caromed off the rim, while UCF crashed the glass like it was a loose ball in a playoff game. That disparity in effort was glaring, and it cost the Red Raiders dearly.
In the paint, it was more of the same. UCF used their size and strength to push Texas Tech around-legally, but decisively.
They dictated space, sealed off angles, and imposed their will. The Red Raiders, meanwhile, struggled to hold their ground, and it showed in every second-chance opportunity the Knights converted.
This isn’t a new issue, either. Texas Tech’s lone win in the series came in a hard-fought, seven-point battle at home last February.
But in the other three games-including two in Orlando-the Red Raiders have looked uncomfortable, outmatched, and, at times, overwhelmed. That’s not a talent issue.
It’s a matchup issue. And it’s becoming a trend.
You can feel the pattern forming here. UCF head coach Johnny Dawkins has built a team that thrives on toughness and thrives even more when facing Texas Tech.
Grant McCasland’s squad, while talented, has yet to find a way to counter that physical edge. Through four meetings, the Red Raiders have arguably had the better roster, but they trail the series 1-3.
That’s not a coincidence-it’s a blueprint.
And right now, Texas Tech has no answer for it.
Defensive Regression Raises Red Flags
What’s especially frustrating for Texas Tech fans is that this loss wasn’t just about rebounding. It was also about defense-or the lack of it.
After showing real progress on that end earlier in the season, the Red Raiders have now given up 86 points to Houston and 88 to UCF in back-to-back games. That’s not going to cut it in the Big 12, no matter how explosive the league is offensively this year.
UCF exploited Texas Tech’s screen-and-roll defense repeatedly in the first half, with John Bol doing serious damage inside. He finished with 14 points on 6-of-8 shooting, much of it coming from well-executed actions that caught the Red Raiders off guard.
That’s a concern. Texas Tech was more focused on pick-and-pop and flare actions, but the Knights found a different way to attack-and it worked.
And when you’re not finishing defensive possessions with rebounds, you’re not really defending. Defensive rebounding is the exclamation point on a stop.
Miss that, and you’re just giving the offense another shot. Texas Tech gave UCF 13 of those.
That’s how games get away from you.
Time for a Rotation Shake-Up?
There’s also a growing conversation around the rotation, particularly at the forward spot. LeJuan Watts played 23 minutes in this one, while Josiah Moseley logged 17. Based on recent performances, that balance might need to shift.
Watts has had too many moments where his focus and decision-making just aren’t where they need to be. One example stood out: with nine seconds left in the first half, he pulled up for a deep, low-percentage three with plenty of time left on the clock.
It was a rushed decision that gave UCF a chance to score before the break. They didn’t capitalize, but that’s not the point.
It’s the kind of mental lapse that winning teams can’t afford.
Moseley, on the other hand, has been solid. He may not have the same off-the-dribble game as Watts or be as fluid a passer, but he’s rebounded well, taken smart shots, and avoided costly mistakes. That kind of reliability matters-especially in games where every possession is a battle.
We’ve already seen McCasland make a similar move earlier in the season with Tyeree Bryan and Jalen Petty, and it paid off. This could be another moment where a tweak to the starting lineup brings a spark.
Looking Ahead
There’s also the question of frontcourt combinations. JT Toppin continues to be a key piece, but fans are wondering when we’ll see him share the floor with Luke Bamgboye.
The answer, for now, is: not yet. Bamgboye played just three minutes in this one and likely isn’t in game shape to handle extended minutes.
Plus, the Toppin-Bamgboye pairing hasn’t been a focal point in recent practices. But if Bamgboye can stay healthy, that twin-tower look could become a bigger part of the rotation in the coming weeks-especially if the rebounding woes persist.
The Bigger Picture
At some point, you have to acknowledge that this isn’t just a bad night. It’s a pattern.
UCF plays a brand of basketball that Texas Tech hasn’t figured out how to counter. Dawkins’ teams bring a level of physicality and edge that seems to short-circuit McCasland’s system.
And until the Red Raiders find a way to match that intensity-and win the battle on the boards-they’re going to keep struggling in this matchup.
The Big 12 doesn’t give you many breaks, and this stretch has been a reminder of just how unforgiving the league can be. But it’s also an opportunity.
Texas Tech has the talent. They’ve shown flashes of being a top-tier defensive team.
Now it’s about putting it all together-and doing the dirty work that wins games in February and March.
Because if they don’t, they’re going to keep pulling the ball out of the net-and wondering what went wrong.