Texas Tech’s season-opening win didn’t shake ESPN’s view of the Red Raiders much, but it did trim the numbers a bit.
No. 12 Texas Tech handled Abilene Christian 33-10 in Joey McGuire’s fifth season at the helm, but the updated Football Power Index still nudged the Red Raiders down after the opener.
ESPN had Texas Tech at 20 in its preseason FPI, good for 10th nationally. After Week 1, that mark fell to 18.4, which now slots the Red Raiders 12th.
The broader projections moved with it. Texas Tech’s expected regular-season finish dipped from 10.8-1.8 before the game to 10.5-2.0 afterward.
The Red Raiders are still heavily favored to clear six wins, with a 99.4% chance there, but several of the bigger ceiling numbers slid. ESPN now gives Texas Tech a 19.2% chance to win out, a 37.2% chance to repeat as Big 12 champions, a 47.8% chance to reach the College Football Playoff, a 4.7% chance to get to the national championship and a 1.8% chance to win it all.
McGuire didn’t sound satisfied after the 33-10 win, pointing to the same issues that bothered him a year ago.
"The things we struggled with last year, we struggled with again tonight," said McGuire following the victory over Abilene Christian. "I think more than anything it was our impatience on offense.
We had to kick three field goals in the red zone, and then one right outside the end zone. That was really frustrating."
Texas Tech now turns to a schedule that continues Sept. 12 at Oregon State before home games against Houston on Sept. 18 and Sam Houston on Sept. 26. The Red Raiders then head to Colorado on Oct. 3 and have the rest of their Big 12 slate lined up with Arizona State, Cincinnati, Arizona, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU.
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Hammond finished 26 of 33 for 298 yards, a touchdown and an interception, numbers that underscore how productive the day was even without a flawless finish. The Red Raiders still had some red-zone issues to sort out, and that is the part Texas Tech will keep circling back to as the stakes rise. But for one afternoon, Hammond gave the fan base something valuable: the sense that the ceiling might be higher than it looked before he took over. [Read more 🡒]