Texas Tech heads into its bye week with a perfect record, a top-10 presence in multiple rankings and a wide range of bowl projections - but not a single major outlet currently has the Red Raiders in the College Football Playoff mix.
The Red Raiders are 5-0 overall and 2-0 in Big 12 play, and their start has kept them among the league’s unbeaten teams alongside BYU and Utah. Texas Tech opened the year at No. 12 in the USA Today Coaches Poll, which marked the highest preseason ranking in program history, and it has stayed near the top of the national conversation ever since.
Still, the projection picture stops short of playoff territory. ESPN’s Week 6 bowl forecast leaves Texas Tech out of the CFP field, with both of its analysts sending the Red Raiders to the Valero Alamo Bowl at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Kyle Bonagura projects Texas Tech against Oregon in a rematch of last season’s CFP game between the two teams, while Mark Schlabach has the Red Raiders matched with UCLA.
Other outlets see Texas Tech in similar bowl territory, though not always with the same opponent. CBS Sports has the Red Raiders facing Tennessee in the Kinder’s Texas Bowl on New Year’s Eve.
SI, USA Today and Athlon Sports all slot Texas Tech into the Valero Alamo Bowl against USC on December 29th. College Football News also sends the Red Raiders to the Alamo Bowl, but with UCLA as the opponent.
Texas Tech’s national standing remains strong across the polls and computer rankings. The Red Raiders are No. 11 in the Associated Press Top 25 heading into Week 6 and No. 9 in the US LBM Coaches Poll.
They sit at No. 11 in the ESPN SP+ rankings for the 2026 college football season, while Athlon Sports also places them at No. 11 in its ranking of all 138 teams after Week 5. CBS Sports has Texas Tech at No. 12, and the NY Times/The Athletic also lists the Red Raiders at No. 12 in its Week 5 re-ranking of 138 college football teams.
The hesitation from some national observers comes down to how Texas Tech has won. The Red Raiders have had trouble separating early and putting teams away, even in games they controlled.
They beat Oregon State and Houston without much style, and while they have four wins by double digits on paper, the offense has often been slow to get going in the first half. The defense has also not quite matched last season’s elite standard, though it has been excellent over the last two games.
What happens next matters just as much as what Texas Tech has already done. The next four games are framed as the key stretch.
Win all four - even if the victories are narrow - and the Red Raiders would be 9-0, firmly in the CFP conversation and unquestionably inside the top 10. If they turn those wins into convincing performances, the national chatter would shift quickly from respect to real playoff belief.
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What makes the stretch run so unforgiving is the math attached to it. Texas Tech likely needs at least six wins in its final seven regular-season games to stay on track for the Big 12 Championship Game, which leaves little room for a stumble once play resumes. The schedule may still offer paths forward, but the margin is thin and the room for error is shrinking fast. [Read more 🡒]