Texas Tech’s season opener Monday night against Jackson State arrives with a very clear early-season identity: the Red Raiders are going to lean hard on the 3-point shot until JT Toppin gets back on the floor.
That reality hit home in last week’s exhibition against Kentucky, when Tech dropped a 76-65 decision and never found much rhythm from long range. The Red Raiders went just 8 for 30 from deep, a 26.7% showing that left them without the kind of outside punch they’ll need while Toppin continues rehabbing his torn knee ligament.
The early math is obvious. Tech has the shooters to make this formula work. Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams, Cruz Davis, and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn all connected on better than 40% of their 3-point tries a season ago, and they did it on serious volume, each taking at least 5.8 attempts per game in 2025-26.
That’s exactly why the Kentucky result stood out. Tech and the Wildcats were nearly matched from deep by volume, but not by efficiency, and the Red Raiders only finished with one more made 3-pointer than Kentucky, which was 7 for 24. Against better opponents, that won’t be enough.
The concern is magnified by what Texas Tech is missing up front. With Toppin sidelined, the Red Raiders don’t have a post scorer who can consistently take over games on the block. His absence also changes how defenses can guard Tech, since opponents won’t have to tilt as much attention toward the paint and can stay more connected to those shooters on the perimeter.
There’s also the status of Jamichael Stillwell, the fifth-year UCF transfer forward who is still pursuing a court injunction to play this season. At 6-foot-8 and 245 pounds, Stillwell brings the kind of physical presence Tech could use. He averaged 11.6 points and 8.2 rebounds last year, and while he doesn’t offer Toppin’s same kind of self-created offense in the post, he can clean up misses, create second chances, and give the Red Raiders a real body inside.
His value stretches beyond scoring, too. Stillwell is projected to be Tech’s top post defender, which matters in a game like the Kentucky exhibition, where 7-footer Malachi Moreno scored 15 points against the Red Raiders.
And the schedule does Tech no favors. Head coach Grant McCasland has lined up a non-conference slate loaded with size, which makes the need for outside shooting even greater.
No. 3 Illinois visits Lubbock in the third game of the season, and the Illini bring five players at 6-foot-9 or taller, including two bigs over 7 feet. The Ivisic brothers combined for 16.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game in 2025-26, while 6-foot-9, 250-pound forward David Mirkovic is coming off a freshman season in which he averaged 13.3 points and 8.0 rebounds.
Then comes No. 11 Louisville in the Players Era Sixteen in Las Vegas the week of Thanksgiving. The Cardinals have six players listed at 6-foot-8 or taller, including Kansas transfer Flory Bidunga, who posted 13.3 points and 9.0 rebounds a season ago, and 6-foot-8 forward LJ Wells, who averaged 15.0 points and 7.3 rebounds last year.
Tech will also run into a size problem when it faces No. 21 USC in Fort Worth on December 13. The Trojans will counter with Jacob Cofie, Joshua Hughes, and Eric Reibe, a trio that combined for 25.1 points and 14.8 rebounds per game last season.
The final non-conference test comes December 21 against No. 2 Duke in New York City, where the Blue Devils will feature 6-foot-11 freshman Cameron Williams, 7-foot-2 freshman Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, and returning junior center Patrick Ngongba, who averaged 10.1 points and 5.8 rebounds in 2025-26.
Even if Stillwell gets cleared, Tech is still likely to enter these matchups giving up size. That leaves one path forward: shoot over teams, not through them.
The Red Raiders have the personnel to do it. They just didn’t do it against Kentucky.
And until Toppin returns, that’s the balancing act for Texas Tech’s season: if the 3s fall, the offense can hold up. If they don’t, the margin gets thin in a hurry.
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