Texas Tech is 3-0, but ESPN’s numbers have taken a step back.
The No. 11 Red Raiders opened Big 12 play last week with a 28-26 home win over ranked Houston, pushing their record to 3-0 after nonconference victories over Abilene Christian and Oregon State. That start has Texas Tech in a strong early spot, but the latest ESPN Football Power Index projection says the profile has cooled compared with where it stood before the season.
ESPN’s FPI is designed to measure team strength and forecast the rest of the year through 10,000 simulations, factoring in results so far and the remaining schedule. Texas Tech entered the season with a 20 rating, which ranked 10th. After three games, the Red Raiders sit at 15.4, down to 17th.
The projected finish has also dipped. Texas Tech opened with a 10.8-1.8 projection and is now listed at 10.3-2.2. Even with that slide, the Red Raiders are still carrying hefty odds in several key categories: a 99.7% chance of winning six games, a 13.5% chance of winning out, a 27.9% chance of repeating as Big 12 champions, a 42.5% chance of reaching the playoff, a 3.3% chance of getting to the national championship and a 1.1% chance of winning it all.
The road ahead starts with Sam Houston on Sept. 26, followed by trips to Colorado and Cincinnati and a run through Arizona State, Arizona, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU.
After the Houston win, coach Joey McGuire said the team is still in the middle of its own discovery process.
"As crazy as it sounds, we're still finding ourselves," said McGuire following the 28-26 victory over Houston last week. "We're finding guys that are going to step up. Then, we're also getting healthier."
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