Texas Tech fans have a clear rooting interest this weekend, even if it means pulling for a conference rival.
Saturday at 6:30 p.m. Central Time, No.
8 BYU hosts No. 2 Notre Dame in Provo in a non-conference matchup with major playoff consequences.
For the Big 12, it is the kind of game that can shape how the league is viewed nationally. And for Texas Tech, it could directly affect the Red Raiders’ path to the postseason.
College football’s playoff race is built on perception as much as results. That has not worked especially well for the Big 12, which continues to sit behind the other major conferences in the eyes of many around the sport. Fair or not, the league’s lack of blue-blood brands has made it harder for its teams to gain the kind of respect that comes with a national spotlight.
That gap matters. Since the 12-team playoff began, the Big 12 still has not landed an at-large berth.
Meanwhile, teams such as Tennessee, Penn State, Oklahoma, and even SMU have received at-large invitations despite having two losses when the bids were announced. With the SEC and Big Ten now playing nine conference games instead of eight, there is already growing talk that a three-loss team from one of those leagues could still get in.
At the same time, the Big 12 has three teams ranked in the top 11 of both national polls, yet the conference is still being dismissed by plenty of college football media. Because of that, many around the sport believe the league is unlikely to place two teams in this year’s bracket.
A BYU win over Notre Dame would change that conversation fast.
The Cougars are not favored. ESPN.com’s Matchup Predictor gives them a 21.8% chance to win, and they will be without their best offensive player, running back L.J.
Martin, who is sidelined with a high ankle sprain suffered two weeks ago in a win over TCU. That leaves BYU to deal with a Notre Dame defense without arguably the top running back in the conference.
Even so, the Cougars have a real shot. The setting helps, too. Night games in Provo have a way of turning into trouble for visiting teams, and BYU rarely loses after dark.
If the Cougars pull the upset, the Big 12’s playoff picture opens up. BYU would be favored in every remaining regular-season game except its November 7 trip to face rival Utah in Salt Lake City.
That means the Cougars would likely finish 11-1 or 12-0 with a win over the No. 2 Fighting Irish on the résumé.
Even if they miss the Big 12 title game because Utah and Texas Tech run the table in league play, BYU would still have a strong case for an at-large spot.
Texas Tech’s own path would also get a boost.
The Red Raiders still need to get to Arlington, Texas, and the Big 12 Championship Game. If they win that game for the second straight year, they are in automatically. But there is another route that becomes much more realistic if BYU takes down Notre Dame.
Imagine an unbeaten Texas Tech team losing a tight championship game in Arlington to an unbeaten Utah squad. In that scenario, the Big 12 would have three teams with legitimate playoff arguments, and the committee would have a difficult time ignoring Tech or BYU.
If BYU loses, though, the Big 12’s national standing takes another hit. The conference would remain the one most people see as the weakest of the four major leagues, even with the ACC lacking depth behind Miami. That could leave the loser of the BYU-Utah game out of the at-large race, and if Tech and BYU meet again in Arlington, the loser there could be pushed aside for a two- or three-loss SEC or Big Ten team.
Texas Tech can remove all of that uncertainty by winning out and taking the Big 12 title. But that is no simple task given how the Red Raiders have played this season.
That is why BYU’s game against Notre Dame matters so much for Tech fans. The best thing for the Red Raiders may be something unusual: cheering hard for a conference rival on Saturday night.
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Arizona State has had trouble separating itself from major-conference teams and the broader numbers point to some stress points, especially in turnover margin and tackles for loss. For Texas Tech, the appeal is obvious: a revenge spot, a home conference test, and a chance to prove the first meeting was not a fair reflection of where this team stands now. [Read more 🡒]