Through seven games of Big 12 play, Texas Tech has put itself squarely in the championship conversation. Sitting at 6-1, the Red Raiders trail only an undefeated Arizona squad that’s been steamrolling its way through the conference.
While there’s still a long road ahead, Tech has emerged as one of the few legitimate threats to Arizona’s title hopes. But to make a serious run at the Big 12 crown, a few key things need to break their way.
Let’s start with the obvious: Arizona has to stumble. And right now, that doesn’t look likely.
The Wildcats are playing with the kind of dominance we haven’t seen since that 2015 Kentucky team that entered the NCAA Tournament undefeated-only to be stunned by Wisconsin in the Final Four. If Arizona keeps rolling at this pace, the rest of the league is fighting for second place.
But college basketball is unpredictable, and if the Wildcats show any signs of vulnerability, Texas Tech is well-positioned to pounce.
Looking ahead, there are 11 games left on the Red Raiders’ Big 12 slate. And while every game matters, four stand out as potential make-or-break matchups.
Road trips to Tucson and Ames loom large. Those are tough places to win, and while head coach Grant McCasland and his squad won’t back down from any challenge, the odds won’t be in their favor.
On the flip side, there’s a stretch of games where Texas Tech should be heavily favored-at West Virginia, home against Colorado, at Arizona State, and home against Kansas State and Cincinnati. If they take care of business in those five, they’ll be sitting at 11-3 in conference play.
From there, the results of those four pivotal games could swing their final record anywhere from 11-7 to 15-3. And if they hit that 15-win mark, they’ll have a real shot at claiming just the second Big 12 title in program history.
Anything less, and they’ll likely need help from Arizona’s opponents.
The first of those key games comes this weekend, and it’s one that could sneak up on people not paying close attention. The Red Raiders head to Orlando to face UCF, and if you think that’s a gimme, think again.
The Knights have had Tech’s number in recent meetings, leading the all-time series 2-1. That includes a 14-point win in Orlando last February and a gritty road victory in Lubbock.
Texas Tech did notch a hard-fought win at home last year, but nothing about this matchup suggests an easy outing.
UCF plays with a physical edge that tends to disrupt Tech’s rhythm. They’re not the most polished team, but they’re scrappy, and they’ve consistently brought their best against the Red Raiders. Escaping Orlando with a win would be a big statement-and a crucial one.
Then comes Kansas. The Jayhawks come to Lubbock immediately after the UCF game, and while they’re a higher-ranked opponent on paper, this might actually be the more winnable contest.
Why? Because not many teams walk into United Supermarkets Arena and come out with a win.
The Red Raiders protect their home court as well as anyone in the country.
That said, we’re talking about a Bill Self team, and that always means trouble. Kansas has elite talent, including a potential No. 1 overall pick in Darryn Peterson-assuming he’s locked in. If Tech is still feeling the effects of the UCF trip, this could get tricky in a hurry.
The final two critical games come at the tail end of the schedule: a home clash with TCU and a road trip to BYU. Don’t let TCU’s record fool you-Jamie Dixon’s teams always seem to elevate their game against the Red Raiders. If the Horned Frogs are fighting for a tournament berth, expect a battle in Lubbock.
And then there’s BYU. The Cougars are a tough out, especially in Provo, where they pack over 18,000 fans into their gym and feed off that energy.
Talent-wise, they might be the most complete team in the Big 12. Still, Texas Tech beat them there last season and handled business again in Lubbock.
So while it’s a daunting challenge, it’s not an impossible one.
If you’re ranking these four swing games by likelihood of a Red Raiders win, it probably goes something like this: Kansas, TCU, BYU, UCF. That’s right-Saturday’s matchup in Orlando might be the trickiest of the bunch, despite the lack of national attention it’s getting.
Texas Tech can’t afford to look ahead. If they’re serious about chasing the Big 12 title, they need to be locked in right now.
There’s still a lot of basketball left to play, but the path is starting to take shape. The margin for error is slim, and every possession matters.
The Red Raiders have the talent, the coaching, and the grit to make a run. Now it’s about execution-especially in the moments that matter most.