The Texas Tech Red Raiders are heating up at just the right time, and their surge up the national rankings is turning heads across the college basketball landscape. With a 90-86 win over Houston, the 11th-ranked Red Raiders improved to 16-4 overall and 6-1 in Big 12 play, a run that’s not just impressive-it’s reshaping their NCAA Tournament outlook in a big way.
At the center of it all is JT Toppin, who continues to build a strong case for back-to-back Big 12 Player of the Year honors. His performance has been a steadying force for a Red Raiders squad that’s finding its rhythm on both ends of the floor. And with March creeping closer, bracketologists are taking notice.
Let’s break down where Texas Tech currently stands in the latest NCAA Tournament projections:
ESPN: 3-seed (East Region)
Joe Lunardi slots Texas Tech as a No. 3 seed in the East Region, with a first-round matchup in San Diego against 14-seed Portland State.
If the Red Raiders advance, they’d face the winner of 6-seed Tennessee and the 11-seed play-in between New Mexico and Virginia Tech. That’s a bracket with some bite, but Tech’s recent form suggests they’re built for the challenge.
USA TODAY: 4-seed (Midwest Region)
The trio of Erick Smith, Eddie Timanus, and Paul Myerberg at USA TODAY sees Texas Tech as a 4-seed in the Midwest, also headed to San Diego.
Their opening matchup? A showdown with 13-seed Hawaii.
Awaiting in the second round would be either 5-seed Arkansas or 12-seed Stephen F. Austin-a team coached by former Texas Tech assistant Matt Brauer.
That potential reunion adds an intriguing subplot to the path forward.
On3: 4-seed (South Region)
James Fletcher III over at On3 echoes the 4-seed projection, placing Tech in the South Region.
Again, the Red Raiders are projected to face 13-seed Hawaii in San Diego, followed by a second-round clash with either 5-seed Arkansas or 12-seed Tulsa. It’s a bracket that offers both opportunity and risk, especially for a team still sharpening its identity ahead of March.
CBS Sports: 4-seed (East Region)
CBS Sports also has Texas Tech as a 4-seed, this time in the East Region, with Liberty as their first-round opponent.
A win there could set up a second-round matchup with either 5-seed Louisville or 12-seed Yale. And if the chalk holds, a potential Sweet 16 rematch with Duke looms-a game that would come with plenty of history and high stakes.
Bleacher Report: 3-seed (East Region)
Kerry Miller at Bleacher Report bumps the Red Raiders up to a 3-seed in the East, keeping them in San Diego for a first-round tilt with 14-seed North Dakota State.
In this projection, Auburn sits as the 6-seed in the region, facing either New Mexico or Missouri in the first round. It’s another bracket where Texas Tech would need to bring its A-game early and often.
March Madness Resume: Texas Tech’s Case Is Strong
As of January 27, Texas Tech sits at No. 17 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, a strong position that reflects both quality wins and consistency. The Red Raiders hold a 5-4 record in Quad 1 games-those top-tier matchups that selection committees weigh heavily-and they’ve been flawless elsewhere, going 11-0 across Quads 2, 3, and 4.
KenPom also paints a favorable picture: Texas Tech is ranked 17th overall, with the No. 8 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country. That’s elite company. Defensively, they’re at No. 40-solid, though there’s still room for growth on that end.
All told, this is a team that’s peaking at the right time. With a balanced resume, a star in Toppin, and a growing sense of momentum, Texas Tech is shaping up to be a dangerous draw for anyone come March. Next up: a road trip to UCF, where the Red Raiders will look to keep the good times rolling.