After securing a 90-78 victory over Arizona State on Tuesday night, TCU men’s basketball is making a strong case for the NCAA Tournament. While it may not be a marquee win, the key for TCU is avoiding losses. ESPN's bracketologist Joe Lunardi had noted that a defeat could have pushed the Horned Frogs out of the bracket, but with the win, they’ve moved up in the “Last Four In” category.
TCU now sits just behind Santa Clara and is close to entering the “Last Four Byes” category, which would allow them to skip the First Four game in Dayton, Ohio. With three regular-season games left, TCU has a chance to solidify its spot before the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City.
TCU’s Resume:
- Record: 18-10, 8-7 Big 12
- NET Ranking: 45
- Quad 1 and 2 Record: 8-8 with four Q1 wins
- Key Wins: Florida (neutral), Wisconsin (neutral), Iowa State (home), Baylor (away)
- Key Losses: New Orleans (home), Utah (away), Notre Dame
The Horned Frogs have built a solid resume, with wins against strong opponents like Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa State. Despite setbacks against Utah, New Orleans, and Notre Dame, TCU’s victories have been crucial, especially with Baylor maintaining a top-50 NET ranking.
Bracketology Updates:
- ESPN: TCU remains in the ‘Last Four In’ and is projected as an 11-seed in a First Four game in Dayton.
- CBS Sports: Similar projection, with TCU facing Santa Clara in the Midwest region.
- Sporting News: TCU also lands as an 11-seed in a First Four game.
According to BracketMatrix, TCU is an 11-seed across multiple projections, confirming their precarious position on the bubble.
The Road Ahead: TCU’s remaining schedule includes games at Kansas State, at Texas Tech, and at home against Cincinnati on March 7.
The immediate focus is avoiding a setback against Kansas State, who are just ahead of last-place Utah. TCU previously edged out Kansas State 84-82 and will need to be cautious against a team now led by former TCU player PJ Haggerty.
The matchup with Texas Tech on March 3 is pivotal. The Red Raiders, with wins over Duke, Houston, and Arizona, present a tough challenge. However, the absence of All-American forward JT Toppin due to injury has opened the door for Christian Anderson Jr., who is thriving with averages of 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 8.5 assists.
The season finale against Cincinnati is another potential pitfall. A win here would be valuable but not definitive if TCU stumbles against Texas Tech. Cincinnati has shown its strength with victories over Kansas and Iowa State.
Final Stretch Goals:
- A 3-0 finish would secure an at-large bid.
- A 2-1 record with wins over Cincinnati and Kansas State could place TCU in the ‘Last Four Byes,’ though a Big 12 Tournament win might still be needed.
- A 2-1 record with a win over Texas Tech should also secure a spot.
- A 1-2 or 0-3 finish would jeopardize TCU’s tournament hopes.
TCU’s path to the NCAA Tournament is clear but fraught with challenges. The Horned Frogs are on the brink, and every game counts as they aim to solidify their tournament future.