TCU Men’s Basketball Still in the Hunt for March-But Time’s Running Out
After a humbling blowout loss to Colorado, TCU men's basketball finds itself at a crossroads. The Horned Frogs are 13-9 overall and 3-6 in Big 12 play-a résumé that’s more confusing than convincing. One night they’re toe-to-toe with Houston and Kansas, the next they’re dropping games to struggling squads like New Orleans and a Colorado team that had lost six straight.
It’s been a rollercoaster, and with just nine games left in the regular season, the Horned Frogs are running out of time to figure out who they really are.
Bubble Watch: Still Breathing
Despite the inconsistency, TCU isn’t out of the NCAA Tournament conversation just yet. In fact, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has them listed in the “next four out” category in his latest bracket projection.
Translation: they’re close. One good run could flip the script and put them on the right side of the bubble.
But it’s going to take more than potential. It’s going to take execution-and fast.
Three Keys for TCU’s Stretch Run
1. Capitalize on the Schedule
Let’s be real: the first half of TCU’s Big 12 slate was a gauntlet. Four ranked opponents, two rivalry games against Baylor, and a brutal stretch of three straight matchups against future NBA lottery picks. That stretch tested the Horned Frogs in every way.
The good news? That part of the schedule is behind them.
Now comes the opportunity. TCU’s final nine games offer a mix of challenges and winnable matchups, starting with a home game against last-place Kansas State on Saturday.
There’s still a tough one at home against No. 7 Iowa State and a road trip to No.
13 Texas Tech, plus a tricky matchup with Central Florida.
But the rest? Manageable. The Frogs face Kansas State twice, Arizona State (who’s just 2-7 in Big 12 play), and Oklahoma State-a team TCU already edged out 68-65 back on January 20.
If they can go 6-3 down the stretch, that could be enough to get them to .500 in conference play-a benchmark that’s historically kept teams in the bubble conversation heading into the Big 12 tournament.
Still, nothing can be taken for granted. The loss at Utah-still the Utes' only conference win-and the recent blowout in Boulder prove that TCU doesn’t have the luxury to overlook anyone.
2. Feed the Frontcourt
One thing that has gone right for TCU? The emergence of their frontcourt duo: junior Xavier Edmonds and sophomore David Punch.
Edmonds, a JUCO transfer, has come into his own during conference play. He’s posted four straight double-doubles and has become far more than just a pick-and-roll finisher. His expanded skill set has turned him into a legitimate half-court weapon.
Punch, meanwhile, has taken a massive leap. He’s doubled his scoring from last season-jumping from 6.5 points to 14.3 per game-and his all-around game has followed suit.
More rebounds, more blocks, more assists. He’s become TCU’s most consistent threat on both ends of the floor.
What makes Punch particularly valuable is his versatility. At 6'7", he might be undersized for a rim protector, but he’s been one of the best in the Big 12. Add in a reliable midrange jumper and a soft floater, and you’ve got a player who can hurt you in multiple ways.
When head coach Jamie Dixon talked in the preseason about the frontcourt being a strength, this is what he had in mind. Now, with the season on the line, TCU needs to keep running through Edmonds and Punch. They’re the engine.
3. Tinker with the Lineup?
Since losing center Malick Diallo to a season-ending injury in the opener, TCU has leaned on a consistent starting five: Punch, Edmonds, junior Brock Harding, senior Jayden Pierre, and junior Liutauras Lelevicius.
Harding is the team’s best floor general. Pierre brings veteran poise.
Edmonds and Punch are locked in. But the fifth spot?
That might be up for grabs.
Lelevicius has been TCU’s top shooter, hitting 40.8% from deep. But his impact drops off when the shots aren’t falling. He’s been challenged to become more active on the boards and more engaged defensively-areas where sophomore forward Micah Robinson has the edge.
Robinson already plays similar minutes off the bench and brings more athleticism, rebounding, and defense to the table. The trade-off?
He’s shooting just 30.3% from three, which is below the national average. That shooting gap might be what’s keeping him in a bench role for now.
Still, if TCU needs a spark-or more physicality-Robinson might be worth a longer look. Sophomore RJ Jones and freshman Kayden Edwards could also see more minutes if the Frogs need to shake things up.
At this point, everything should be on the table. The margin for error is thin, and the tournament window is closing fast.
The Bottom Line
TCU still has a shot to dance in March. But the clock is ticking. If they can clean up the inconsistency, ride their frontcourt, and possibly tweak the rotation, there’s a path to the tournament.
It’s not easy, but it’s there. Now it’s up to the Horned Frogs to go take it.