TCU’s football future is headed for another round of hard questions this week, and Sonny Dykes sits right in the middle of them.
With the university board of trustees scheduled to meet, the agenda includes more than one big issue: the fallout from chancellor Daniel Pullin’s resignation, Victor Boschini’s return, and a budget that could shape the athletic department’s next steps. That means Dykes, TCU’s highest-paid employee, is part of the conversation whether the school wants that or not.
The financial picture around college football has changed fast, and TCU is dealing with the same pressure as other Power Four programs that are trying to keep pace in an era where schools are paying athletes six and seven figures just to stay competitive. The old escape hatch - simply buying out a coach and moving on - is a lot messier now.
TCU extended Dykes’ contract in the spring, adding years in a move that lowered the buyout figure and kept his situation in constant circulation. The school has the resources to do plenty, but that does not mean the money is sitting there waiting to be spent. TCU’s endowment is $2.9 billion, up 80 percent over the last five years according to the Business Journal, but university leadership has preferred not to dip into it beyond the standard payout used for annual expenses.
That matters because the university’s spending has climbed in other directions. Enrollment and tuition have both gone up over the last decade, and TCU has also taken on major costs tied to campus construction, a medical school, and the push for Carnegie R1 classification, which goes to schools that grant doctoral degrees and have “very high research activity.”
The medical school’s payoff is still years away, and R1 status is both expensive and uncertain. TCU and Wake Forest are the only two schools in the P4 that are not R1.
All of that lands in a college sports environment where coaching salaries have reached absurd levels and player compensation is now part of the equation too. Athletic department money may be separate on paper, but it still sits under the same larger financial umbrella.
That makes the cost of firing a coach far more than just the buyout itself. There’s the replacement salary, transition costs, and the rest of the staff turnover that comes with it.
For schools like TCU, Kansas, Colorado and Clemson, that kind of move is no longer simple. It has to be weighed against the possibility that the football program - the school’s biggest public-facing brand - still isn’t delivering enough to justify the expense. Florida State already made that call with Mike Norvell, paying his $50 million buyout.
Dykes also has a football argument working for him, at least in part. In this new version of the sport, he can point to the reality that good teams are going to lose two or three games and still call the season successful. He can also say his team is “close,” and there is some evidence behind that: TCU has lost five games by one score, though its offense has been a problem.
The other major change in his favor arrived Monday, when the playoff expansion from 12 to 24 teams was announced. That move only adds to the sense that coaches who once might have been out the door could now get a little more time.
TCU hosts Kansas State at 1 p.m. Saturday in Fort Worth in a matchup between two teams trying to avoid last place in the Big 12.
TCU is a 10-point favorite and could move to 4-5, leaving it one win short of bowl eligibility with two games left. The forecast may call for mid-60s temperatures, but the mood around the game is expected to be far colder.
The board meeting this week will bring all of it together: the budget, the coach, the buyout, and the question of whether moving on from Sonny Dykes is worth the price.
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