The Big 12 spent Saturday taking hits from two sides at once.
Texas Tech and BYU both entered the day with conference-title and College Football Playoff hopes attached to them, and both walked off with losses to unranked opponents. For a league trying to strengthen its CFP case, it was the kind of afternoon that can linger.
Texas Tech was first to stumble, falling on the road to Cincinnati 37-24. The Red Raiders were 10.5-point favorites against a 4-2 Bearcats team, but their offense never found enough rhythm to take control. Texas Tech had to settle for four field goals, and Cincinnati took a 24-6 lead into halftime.
The Red Raiders did show some life after the break. They opened the third quarter with 10 points, getting a field goal and a pick-six.
Texas Tech also picked off Bearcats quarterback JC French IV a second time, but Stone Harrington missed a 38-yard field goal, and Cincinnati answered with a touchdown on the next drive to push the lead to 31-15. Texas Tech added 10 more points in the fourth quarter, but the Bearcats finished the job with an insurance touchdown and closed out the 37-24 win.
Then came the bigger shock.
BYU, coming off a huge home win over then-No. 2 Notre Dame, went to UCF and lost 39-31 in double overtime.
The game stayed tight from start to finish, with UCF leading 17-14 at halftime and 24-21 after three quarters. BYU’s Matthias Dunn tied it at 24 with a 47-yard field goal in the fourth quarter, and that score held until regulation ended.
Both teams traded touchdowns in the first overtime to force a second.
That’s where the game turned on a controversial sequence. UCF was ready to settle for a field goal on its first possession of the second overtime, but a roughing the kicker call gave the Knights new life.
From there, UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins found Grayson Brousseau in the end zone, and the Knights converted the two-point try to go up 39-31. On BYU’s next possession, Bear Bachmeir could not connect with Walker Lyons in the end zone, and the upset was sealed.
For the conference picture, the damage was immediate.
According to DraftKings, BYU still sits at +110 to make the CFP, which is the 11-best mark in the nation. Texas Tech is at +340. Utah, which plays Houston later Saturday at home, has the best odds in the conference at -115.
ESPN’s FPI had Texas Tech at a 67.9% chance to make the CFP entering Saturday, while BYU was at 71.3%. BYU may still have some breathing room thanks to the Notre Dame win, but the road ahead is no joke.
The Cougars still have Arizona State, Utah on the road, Baylor, Kansas in Manhattan and Cincinnati at home. Another loss would make the path to the CFP much harder.
In Other News...
Texas Tech Has A Stake In The Big 12's Next Decision
Cincinnatis upset win over Texas Tech on Saturday did more than shake up the Big 12 race. It also set off a conference review after fans stormed the Nippert Stadium field, putting the Bearcats in line for a possible $50,000 fine under the leagues field-storming policy. The Big 12 is now examining whether the appropriate security measures were in place and whether a safe path was provided for the visiting team and officials.
For Texas Tech, the interest goes beyond the loss itself, because the leagues next decision will help define how these postgame scenes are handled moving forward. The Big 12 typically reaches a ruling within days of incidents like this, so Cincinnatis situation should be settled soon, with the conference weighing both the celebration and the safety issues that came with it. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Techs QB Problem Just Changed The Big 12 Picture
Texas Techs trip to Cincinnati turned into more than just a lopsided 37-18 loss. It exposed how fragile the Red Raiders can look when the offense stalls inside the red zone and the ground game, on both sides of the ball, starts slipping away. Will Hammond threw for 227 yards, but the one interception and one fumble were part of a messy night for an offense that never found enough rhythm to keep pace.
On the other side, the Bearcats controlled the line of scrimmage in a way that changed the feel of the game and, by extension, the Big 12 conversation around Texas Tech. Cincinnati piled up 257 rushing yards, with Cole Tabb doing most of the damage, and the Red Raiders spent too much of the night chasing answers after Brendan Sorsby was unavailable because of eligibility issues tied to gambling allegations. For Texas Tech, the loss was frustrating enough on its own, but the bigger concern is what it says about how quickly the margin can disappear when the quarterback situation turns uncertain. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Tech Faces Its First Real Road Test At Cincinnati
No. 8 Texas Tech heads to Nippert Stadium for what figures to be its first true road test of the season, and the matchup brings a familiar sort of Big 12 stress. Joey McGuire and defensive coordinator Shiel Wood spent part of the buildup circling Cincinnatis running game, while also keeping an eye on quarterback JC French IV and the ways the Bearcats try to make a defense stay honest. For a Red Raiders team that has looked sharp and physical, this is the kind of game that starts to reveal how much of that success travels.
Texas Techs defense has been one of the early talking points around the program, and recent individual performances have only added to the optimism. But road games have a way of testing discipline as much as talent, especially in a venue like Nippert where the noise and tempo can change the feel of a game quickly. The broadcast will be easy to find, but the bigger question is whether the Red Raiders can take their defensive confidence on the road and handle a Cincinnati team built to make opponents work for every stop. [Read more 🡒]