As the non-conference slate of the college basketball season wraps up, the games are about to start counting for a whole lot more. For teams across the power conferences, the new year brings fresh opportunity - no matter how rocky the start. A strong showing in league play can rewrite the narrative, push fringe teams into the NCAA Tournament conversation, and elevate contenders into the race for a No. 1 seed.
And when it comes to power conferences, the Big 12 is once again looking like the heavyweight it’s long been known to be. After a slightly down year in 2025, the league is reloaded and ready to reassert itself atop the college basketball hierarchy. With six legitimate contenders and a few dark horses lurking, the Big 12 is shaping up to be a gauntlet.
In this four-part breakdown, we’re taking a look at the Big 12’s tiers - not as predictions for March, but as a snapshot of where each team stands right now. Things change quickly in college hoops, and they will. But as conference play tips off, here’s how the bottom tier stacks up.
No. 12 - Baylor (10-2)
Let’s be honest: Baylor’s non-conference schedule down the stretch was soft. Really soft.
Facing Norfolk State, Alcorn State, Southern, and Arlington Baptist in a row doesn’t exactly sharpen your edge heading into Big 12 play. That’s not the kind of lineup you expect from a program with Baylor’s recent pedigree.
On the floor, the Bears haven’t exactly silenced the skeptics. Their best wins are over Washington and a Creighton team that hasn’t looked like itself.
Meanwhile, they took a 15-point loss to a St. John's squad still trying to find its footing, and fell to a Memphis team that’s under serious pressure to turn things around.
Still, this is a Scott Drew team, and that means there’s talent. Freshman wing Tounde Yessoufou has the tools to be a one-and-done difference-maker, and the offense has firepower.
But the defense? Not there yet.
Baylor’s going to need to tighten up on that end if it wants to survive the meat grinder that is Big 12 play. Right now, they’re a team with potential - and plenty of question marks.
No. 11 - Kansas State (9-4)
The Wildcats came out of the gate with a statement win, blowing out Mississippi State by 21. But things unraveled quickly after that.
Four straight losses followed - a one-point heartbreaker to Nebraska, a 17-point drubbing by Indiana, and back-to-back home losses to Bowling Green (by 16) and Seton Hall (by 11). That’s a rough stretch, especially considering two of those defeats came in Manhattan.
They did manage to stop the bleeding with a win over Creighton, but that alone won’t change the narrative. The real test comes when they open conference play against BYU. If K-State wants to be taken seriously in the Big 12, it starts with getting stops - something they haven’t done consistently so far.
There’s talent here, but the Wildcats are going to have to defend at a much higher level to compete in this league. The margin for error is razor-thin, and the next few weeks will tell us a lot about whether this team is ready to bounce back or fade into the background.
No. 10 - Oklahoma State (12-1)
Here’s a surprise: Oklahoma State might be the most improved team in the Big 12. Now, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re a tournament lock - but they’ve already blown past the low expectations many had for them entering the season.
The Cowboys are leaning on size, depth, and one of the best under-the-radar transfer pickups in the country. Anthony Roy, who came over from Green Bay, has been a revelation. He’s averaging 17 points per game and giving OSU a steady scoring presence in the backcourt.
Their résumé includes a dominant 24-point win over Texas A&M and a solid victory over Northwestern in Chicago. The only blemish?
A nine-point loss to in-state rival Oklahoma in Oklahoma City. That’s a respectable showing.
Oklahoma State may not be ready to run with the league’s elite just yet, but they’re no longer the pushover many expected. If they keep this up, they could make things very interesting in February.
No. 9 - Arizona State (9-4)
Trying to get a read on Arizona State is like trying to catch smoke. One night, they look like a team that could make a run - with wins over Washington State, Texas, and a 16-point beatdown of Oklahoma.
The next, they’re falling to Oregon State in a head-scratcher.
Their other losses - to Gonzaga, USC, and UCLA - came by an average of 13 points. So while they’ve shown flashes of being competitive against top-tier programs, they haven’t been able to put it all together.
What’s clear is that this team plays hard on defense. The Sun Devils have made life difficult for opponents on that end.
But rebounding has been a weakness, and the roster lacks star power. It’s a group of no-name grinders, but they’ve been holding their own.
ASU is the kind of team that could sneak up on people in conference play - or fall off the map entirely. Either way, they’ll be one of the more intriguing watches in the Big 12 over the next few months.
Up Next: We’ll move up the ladder and take a look at the mid-tier teams in the Big 12 - the ones who could play spoiler, or even crash the top of the standings if things break right. Stay tuned.