When Baylor walks into Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday, the Bears will be carrying the underdog label against Auburn. That outlook has been shaped by a few things: Dave Aranda’s presumed hot seat in Waco, and the buzz around Auburn’s new coach-quarterback pairing of Alex Golesh and Byrum Brown.
Brown, for his part, doesn’t sound like someone losing sleep over Baylor’s defense.
"They play hard. They fly around to the ball.
They're sound. We're going to have to be smart with the ball, find the open guys, and let our playmakers make plays," Brown said about facing Baylor's defense.
"That's the name of the game. Just be us, be our offense, and we should be just fine."
His confidence points to a bigger issue for Baylor, one that has been building for years. The Bears simply haven’t produced enough top-end NFL talent to stack up consistently with the better teams they face, especially inside the Big 12. At this level, talent doesn’t guarantee wins, but not having enough of it can put a program behind the eight ball fast.
Baylor did have a strong run in the late 2000s and early 2010s, when it sent six players to the first round of the NFL Draft between 2009 and 2016. That group included Jason Smith, who went No. 2 overall, and Robert Griffin III, who also went No. 2.
But the pipeline has gone dry since Corey Coleman went No. 15 overall in 2016. Ten drafts have passed without Baylor producing another first-round pick. Among the other 15 current Big 12 programs, only two have gone longer without one, and Kansas is one of them.
The gap looks even wider when you zoom in on the rest of the draft board. Thirteen of the Big 12’s 16 teams have had at least one first-round selection since the start of this decade, and seven of them have done it in the last two drafts alone. Baylor did snap a draft drought earlier this year, but the two Bears picked both came in the sixth round, more than 150 spots after the last first-rounder came off the board.
The numbers are even tougher on Baylor when you look at the first three rounds. Over the last 10 drafts, the Bears have produced just five Day 1 and Day 2 picks.
The NFL results there haven’t helped the story much either. Siaki Ika, Denzel Mims, Tyquan Thornton, and JT Woods all failed to make it through their rookie contracts.
Jalen Pitre is the one real success story, becoming a starting defensive back for the Houston Texans.
Most of the Big 12 has done much better by that measure. Ten conference programs have generated more Day 1 and Day 2 picks over that same stretch, and Utah has nearly doubled Baylor’s total with 14 players selected in the opening three rounds.
The old model of spending years building a roster and waiting for it to mature feels less useful now, and Baylor doesn’t have to look far to see how quickly things can change. Texas Tech has shown how funding and organizational alignment can raise the level of a roster in a hurry. In 2026, the Red Raiders produced five top-100 picks, matching Baylor’s total from the last 10 years.
If Baylor is going to change its trajectory this season, it likely needs one of its best players to make a real leap in 2026. DJ Lagway is the name that fits that bill.
Lagway arrived at Florida in 2024 as the No. 1-rated dual-threat quarterback in his recruiting class. After a strong freshman year, he entered the 2025 season as one of the Heisman Trophy favorites and, according to Pro Football Focus, a top-10 quarterback in the country.
Health issues and a collapsing Florida regime held him back last season. Even so, the talent that once had some evaluators projecting him as the No. 1 overall pick in 2027 is still there.
If Lagway can flash the same upside he showed at Florida while cutting down on the costly mistakes that hurt the Gators, NFL teams will notice. And if that happens, Baylor will have something it badly needs: a true difference-maker at quarterback.
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The red zone is the obvious place for Castellanos to matter, because his game offers both a runners threat and a passers touch. Texas Tech has been searching for more options in tight spaces, and Castellanos history of producing both rushing and passing touchdowns gives McGuire a useful piece to deploy while leaving one bigger question hanging over how expansive that role could become. [Read more 🡒]