Bracketology Shake-Up: Arizona Slides, Texas Tech Surges, and Florida’s Climb Gets Real
Saturday brought another jolt to the top of the college basketball landscape, and the Bracketology board is feeling the aftershocks. Arizona may still be holding onto a No. 1 seed in CBS Sports’ latest projections, but after dropping its second straight game - a 78-75 overtime loss to Texas Tech - the Wildcats are no longer sitting quite as comfortably. At 23-2 overall and 10-2 in Big 12 play, Arizona now ranks as the third No. 1 seed, behind Michigan and Duke.
Let’s break that down.
Duke Locks in the No. 2 Overall Spot
Duke continues to strengthen its grip on the second overall seed after a convincing 67-54 win over Clemson. The Blue Devils are 23-2 (12-1 in conference), and the metrics love them.
They’re sitting at No. 2 in both WAB - a key résumé metric that evaluates wins above bubble - and KenPom, which leans predictive. That’s a powerful combination when it comes to NCAA seeding.
With Michigan still holding the top spot, Duke is positioning itself as the clear next-in-line. And with the Blue Devils rolling through ACC play, they’re not just chasing a No. 1 seed - they’re threatening to make a run at the tournament’s overall No. 1.
Iowa State Reclaims a No. 2 Seed
One of Saturday’s biggest movers was Iowa State. The Cyclones didn’t just beat Kansas - they handled them, 74-56, in a game that sent a message. That win bumped Iowa State back up to the 2-seed line in CBS Sports’ projections.
Now sitting at 22-3 overall and 9-3 in Big 12 play, the Cyclones are building a resume that’s hard to ignore. The victory temporarily pushed Illinois down to a No. 3 seed - at least until the Illini get their shot to respond against Indiana on Sunday.
And Iowa State’s momentum doesn’t stop there. Monday night brings another massive opportunity: a home showdown with Houston, the current No. 4 overall seed. That’s the kind of matchup that could swing seeding lines again.
Houston Holds Steady
Speaking of the Cougars, they took care of business Saturday with a 78-64 win over Kansas State. That win helped Houston maintain its position as the fourth No. 1 seed in the CBS model. While they didn’t make a leap, they didn’t need to - stability is a win when you’re already on the top line.
Texas Tech Makes a Statement
Texas Tech’s upset win at Arizona wasn’t just a big moment for the Red Raiders - it was a bracket-shaking result. Pre-game models suggested Tech might move up within the No. 4 seed line, but once the dust settled, they had jumped all the way to the final No. 3 seed.
And that’s not just a reward for one win. Texas Tech now owns victories over three of the four projected No. 1 seeds. That’s résumé gold.
The metrics back it up, too. The Red Raiders jumped from No. 15 to No. 11 in WAB - a significant leap - and they climbed six spots in KenPom, landing at No.
- That kind of upward movement across both résumé and predictive metrics is exactly what the committee looks for in a team trending upward.
Florida Heating Up at the Right Time
Don’t look now, but Florida is making some serious noise. The Gators knocked off Kentucky 92-83 on Saturday, and that win helped them climb from 14th to 13th in WAB. They’re still listed as a No. 3 seed, but they’re inching closer to the 2-line - and their recent play suggests they might not stop there.
Florida (19-6, 10-2 in SEC play) is leading the conference and looking like one of the most efficient teams in the country over the past month and a half. According to Bart Torvik’s metrics, they’re neck and neck with Houston in terms of recent efficiency - and that’s no small feat.
Yes, early-season stumbles dinged their résumé, but this version of Florida is checking all the boxes: winning big games, passing the eye test, and climbing the predictive rankings. Their placement in next Saturday’s NCAA early top 16 reveal will be one to watch closely.
Where Things Stand
As of now, here’s how the top of the bracket shakes out in CBS Sports’ model:
- No. 1 Seeds: Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Houston
- No. 2 Seeds: Iowa State, and others jockeying for position
- Big Movers: Texas Tech (up to No. 3 seed), Florida (climbing fast)
This is the time of year when every game feels like it carries a little extra weight - and Saturday proved why. With top seeds shifting and bubble teams making their move, the road to Selection Sunday is only getting more intense. Buckle up.