Why the Texas Rangers Enter 2026 Without the Weight of Expectations
The Texas Rangers are back in Surprise, Arizona, for spring training-but the buzz that usually follows a reigning or recent champion? Nowhere to be found. Just three years removed from hoisting the World Series trophy, the Rangers enter 2026 not as a team to beat, but as one trying to find its footing again.
And while it’s easy to point fingers at a quieter offseason or the financial arms race led by teams like the Dodgers, the real story is deeper-and more internal. This isn’t about payroll. It’s about player development.
The Missed Window
After years of rebuilding, the Rangers were supposed to be entering the sweet spot of their competitive cycle. Think back to the Astros around 2018-loaded with homegrown talent, augmented by smart free-agent signings, and built to contend for the long haul.
That was the blueprint. And for a moment, it looked like Texas had cracked it.
From 2017 to 2022, the Rangers endured plenty of losing seasons, stockpiling high draft picks along the way. The front office hit the gas in free agency in 2021 and 2022, bringing in marquee talent to complement what was expected to be a wave of young contributors. That wave, however, never fully crested.
The 2023 World Series title was supposed to be the launchpad. Instead, it’s starting to feel like the exception, not the beginning of something bigger.
Since that championship run, the Rangers have posted one losing season, one .500 finish, and zero playoff appearances. That’s not the trajectory of a team building a dynasty-it’s the profile of a team stuck in neutral.
Vegas has the Rangers pegged at 82.5 wins in 2026, with 30-1 odds to win it all. That’s not disrespect. That’s a reflection of where this roster-and this organization-currently stands.
Not About the Money
Let’s be clear: this isn’t a case of ownership pinching pennies. The Rangers are projected to carry a $214 million payroll this season, including luxury tax penalties.
That ranks 14th in MLB. Yes, it’s a step down from sixth in 2025, but it’s still a serious financial commitment.
Ray Davis and the ownership group have consistently spent to compete, often operating with a top-10 payroll despite not having the revenue streams of big-market powerhouses like the Yankees, Dodgers, or Cubs. But even with deep pockets, sustained success in today’s MLB requires more than just checkbook management. You have to draft, develop, and hit on your own guys.
And that’s where Texas has come up short.
Draft Picks: Hits, Misses, and Maybes
Between 2018 and 2023, the Rangers made 20 picks in the top 120 slots of the MLB Draft. That’s a significant haul.
The standouts? Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, Josh Jung, Evan Carter, and Wyatt Langford.
All have made it to the big leagues. But the list of players who haven’t panned out is just as long-and arguably more telling.
Cole Winn, Owen White, Justin Foscue-these were high picks who haven’t turned into contributors. That’s a problem.
Because if you’re not getting production from your draft classes, you’re forced to keep spending to fill those gaps. And even with a healthy payroll, that’s not sustainable over time.
Langford has been a bright spot. He’s been solid through his first two seasons, and the Rangers are counting on him to be a cornerstone in an outfield that’s lacked consistent production the past two years.
Leiter took a step forward in 2025, making 29 starts and finishing seventh in Rookie of the Year voting with a 4.50 ERA. That’s a good sign, but it’s still early.
Rocker, meanwhile, is still finding his footing after Tommy John surgery in 2023. He made 14 starts last season, but a 5.74 ERA shows there’s work to be done.
Then there’s Jung and Carter-two players who were instrumental in the 2023 title run but haven’t been the same since.
Carter’s back issues have limited him to just 108 games combined over the past two seasons. Back injuries are notoriously tricky, and so far, he hasn’t been able to stay on the field long enough to prove he can be a reliable everyday player.
Jung’s struggles have been more performance-related. After an All-Star campaign, he slumped so badly last year that the team sent him back to the minors. It’s a critical year for him-a “make or break” season if ever there was one.
The Bigger Picture
This is how good teams become great: they develop their own stars, ride their rookie contracts, and build around that core with smart spending. It’s how you stretch a title window from a single season into five, six, or seven years of contention.
The Rangers? They didn’t get enough out of their farm system. And that’s why, despite having a championship banner hanging at Globe Life Field, they’re not being talked about as serious contenders in 2026.
It’s not that the front office didn’t try. It’s not that ownership didn’t spend.
It’s that the pipeline didn’t deliver when it needed to. And in today’s MLB, that’s the difference between staying on top and slipping back into the middle of the pack.
The Rangers still have talent. They still have resources. But for now, they’re a team trying to rediscover the formula that made them champions-not one poised to defend that crown anytime soon.