The Texas Rangers have 18 games left to do something they haven’t managed in more than a decade: catch the Houston Astros and win the AL West.
It’s a tight setup, at least on paper. Texas sits at 71-73, Houston at 73-71, and both clubs have the same number of games remaining.
Even better for the scoreboard watchers: when one team plays, the other does too. When one rests, so does the other.
Every night from here on out, each side will know exactly what the other did.
That’s why this is the closest division race in baseball entering Tuesday’s action, even if the overall feel of it has been a little muted. The two teams are both sitting around .500, and they’ve already finished their season series, which takes some of the edge out of the chase.
Still, there’s a path for Texas - a narrow one, but a real one.
Because Houston won the season series, the Rangers can’t just pull even and call it a day. They need to finish ahead of the Astros outright. In practical terms, that means Texas has to win three more games than Houston over the final 18.
So if the Astros go 9-9, the Rangers would need to go 12-6. That’s the kind of finish that would flip the race.
Here’s what the stretch run looks like.
Texas is on the road at Seattle from Tuesday through Thursday, then at Arizona from Friday through Sunday. After an off day on Sept. 14, the Rangers return home for Boston on Sept.
15-17, Toronto on Sept. 18-20, another off day on Sept. 21, the Mets on Sept. 22-24, and then finish at Minnesota on Sept. 25-27.
Houston starts at Philadelphia from Tuesday through Thursday, then goes to Tampa Bay from Friday through Sunday. After the Sept. 14 off day, the Astros are home for Kansas City on Sept. 15-17 and Atlanta on Sept. 18-20, then take another off day on Sept. 21 before finishing at Seattle on Sept. 22-23 and at the Athletics on Sept. 24-27.
The home-road split matters here. Texas has nine games left at home and nine away.
The Rangers are 40-32 at home, but just 31-41 on the road. Houston has six home games and 12 road games left, and the Astros are 37-38 at home and 36-33 away.
That puts extra pressure on Texas to make the most of its home games. The Rangers can’t afford to give away much on the road, either.
If they only manage a 5-4 road finish, then in the 12-win scenario needed to pass a 9-9 Houston, they’d have to go 7-2 at home. That’s a heavy lift, especially with Boston and Toronto still fighting for playoff berths.
Houston’s path isn’t exactly smooth at the start, either. The Astros face a tougher run this week and next, with nine games against either division leaders or Philadelphia, which is still within striking distance of a division lead. But the schedule softens late, and that matters: six division games close out the year, including four against the Athletics.
Texas doesn’t get a division leader on the slate down the stretch, but Arizona, Boston and Toronto all have something on the line. That’s nine games against clubs with stakes of their own.
So for the Rangers to make this race interesting, the formula is pretty clear: win big at home, stay above water on the road, and get a little help from Houston along the way. A 12-6 finish would do the job, but only if the Astros stumble enough to let it happen.
What’s been a flat division race for most of the season now has three weeks to wake up. The Rangers have their shot.
In Other News...
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Rangers Get A Timely Bullpen Boost As Playoff Pressure Builds
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The Rangers now carry six left-handed pitchers and three right-handed pitchers on the active roster, a blend that gives the staff a different look as the race tightens. Garcias return is less about fanfare than fit, and for a team trying to stay in the mix, simply getting another proven arm back in the bullpen can matter plenty as September approaches. [Read more 🡒]