Texas is heading into unfamiliar territory Saturday night, and not just because the Longhorns are walking into Death Valley.
For the first time all season, Steve Sarkisian’s team is listed as a betting underdog, a notable turn for a Texas squad that has spent 2026 with the market on its side. BetMGM has the Longhorns as 4.5-point underdogs against LSU in Baton Rouge, a rare label for a team that has been favored in every previous game, even against several ranked opponents.
That shift doesn’t come because Texas has stopped winning. The Longhorns are 7-2 overall and 4-2 in the SEC, and they’ve taken three straight, capped by last Saturday’s 34-20 road win at Missouri. Arch Manning was sharp in that one, going 28 of 38 for 297 yards and three touchdowns as Texas finished the game on a 21-point run.
But the market hasn’t forgotten the bumps along the way. Texas dropped back-to-back games by 27-24 scores to Oklahoma and Florida, results that exposed some offensive issues and left questions about Manning’s consistency against top competition.
There’s also the setting itself. Tiger Stadium is one of the toughest places in college football on a Saturday night, where the noise and pressure can rattle visiting offenses and put quarterbacks in difficult spots.
Sarkisian isn’t shying away from the challenge.
"We’re big game hunters, we showed up today," Sarkisian said following the Missouri victory.
Texas has already shown it can handle ranked opponents, and the offense has made adjustments that have helped Manning settle in. The Longhorns have leaned more on shorter throws, better protection and a more balanced approach instead of asking for explosive plays on every snap.
That evolution matters against an LSU defense Sarkisian holds in high regard.
"You could argue this is the most talented defense we’re going to go against this year," Sarkisian said.
LSU, coached by Lane Kiffin, enters the game at 6-3 after a 31-13 loss to Alabama and needs a statement win of its own to improve its postseason outlook.
Texas has plenty on the line too. The Longhorns are sixth in the College Football Playoff standings, and a win in Baton Rouge would strengthen that position while also building momentum before the regular-season finish against Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Saturday night gives Texas its first real test against the odds this season. Manning and the Longhorns now have to prove the betting line wrong.
Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC.
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Lane Kiffin Opens Up On Arch Manning Before Texas LSU Showdown
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Kiffin also revisited his own complicated history with the Manning family, including the fact that Archie Manning once apologized after previously calling him a narcissistic jerk. It is the kind of backstory that gives this matchup a little more edge than the standings alone would suggest, especially with Texas preparing for one of its biggest tests of the season. For Kiffin, the conversation was as much about respect and history as it was about the game ahead. [Read more 🡒]
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The timing of the chatter made sense, given that current Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has already announced he will step down effective Jan. 31, 2027. Even so, Del Contes public denial leaves Texas focused on keeping one of its most important administrators in place, at least for now, rather than wondering whether the school might soon have to navigate a major leadership change of its own. [Read more 🡒]
Texas CFP Debate Just Got More Serious After Latest Rankings
Texas push into the College Football Playoff picture got a little more real after the latest rankings, with the Longhorns climbing one spot to No. 6 after their win over Missouri. The move keeps them in striking distance, but it also underscores how crowded the race remains, with Georgia, Alabama, Utah, UCLA and Notre Dame still sitting ahead of them in the committees pecking order.
For Texas, the debate is no longer just about being in the conversation, but about how the committee is weighing record and strength of schedule against the teams clustered around them. The Longhorns have done enough to keep moving upward, yet the gap to the top four still depends on how the committee continues to sort out the resumes in front of them. [Read more 🡒]