Florida and Texas both took a hit in Week 6, and now they meet in a spot where the Longhorns are expected to steady themselves at home.
Florida has slid out of the top 25 after getting blown out by Missouri and South Carolina in back-to-back SEC games, and Jon Sumrall’s team arrives in Austin as a 10.5-point underdog. Texas, meanwhile, is back at No. 7 after its stunning loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, a game that featured another shaky outing from Arch Manning, who threw two picks.
That loss changed the tenor around Texas in a hurry. The Longhorns beat Ohio State earlier this season and still have a high ceiling, but they’re no longer sitting comfortably in the playoff picture.
With Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU next on the schedule, the margin for error is shrinking fast. A couple more losses could knock Texas out of College Football Playoff contention.
Manning has been one of the biggest talking points all season. He entered 2026 as a Heisman candidate and a possible No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, but the production hasn’t quite matched the hype.
He’s completed 63.0 percent of his passes for 1,122 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions, while adding 102 rushing yards on 39 carries. Texas’ offense sits 89th in EPA/Play, and Manning needs a cleaner, sharper performance if the Longhorns are going to stay in the mix as a conference threat.
This matchup offers a chance for that kind of rebound. Florida’s defense has been a problem all season, sitting outside the top 100 in EPA/Play, ranking 135th in third- and fourth-down success rate, and landing at No. 123 overall in success rate. The Gators have already given up 39, 28, 45 and 38 points in their four conference games in 2026, and they’re coming off those two blowout losses.
That’s why the better betting angle here is the total, not the side. Even with Florida’s recent struggles, Texas hasn’t been a prolific offense all year, and this is only the one game where the Longhorns have topped 52.5 points.
But the matchup points toward scoring. Texas should have a path to 30-plus at home, and Florida’s offense still has enough to matter, especially since it ranks in the top 10 in EPA/Pass and in the top 50 in EPA/Rush.
The Gators have also scored more than 52.5 combined points in every game this season.
Texas allowed 27 points to a struggling Oklahoma team in Week 6, which adds another reason to expect Florida to find some answers. The Longhorns need Manning to respond, and this setting gives him the chance to do it.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
In Other News...
Texas Just Learned How Costly That Red River Loss Really Was
The Red River loss to Oklahoma did more than just knock Texas out of the win column. A 47-yard kick by Tate Sandell sealed the 27-24 defeat and ended the Longhorns four-week run at No. 1 in the AP Poll, a stretch that had given the program some early-season breathing room at the top.
The fallout was just as jarring as the finish. Texas dropped to No. 7 in the AP Poll and No. 6 in the Coaches Poll, and with several other top-25 teams also stumbling over the week, the rankings shuffled around the Longhorns in a way that makes the defeat look even costlier in hindsight. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Suddenly Has A Coaching Question Fans Cant Ignore
Texas left the Red River Rivalry with more than a frustrating 27-24 loss to unranked Oklahoma. The Longhorns were undone by a messy special teams performance, highlighted by a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown and a missed late field goal, while the offense also had trouble sustaining drives and converting on third down.
Steve Sarkisian was asked afterward whether the special teams operation needs to be re-evaluated, a question that can linger when a game turns on hidden-yardage mistakes. For a Texas team with bigger goals, the concern now is not just the loss itself, but whether one phase of the game has become too costly to keep overlooking. [Read more 🡒]
Arch Manning Is Now At Center Of Texas' Biggest Debate
Texas left the Red River Rivalry with the kind of loss that lingers, a late field goal handing Oklahoma the win and putting Arch Manning right in the middle of the conversation. Manning was sharp enough in the first half and showed comfort on throws inside the numbers, but the finish turned on a pair of fourth-quarter interceptions that helped swing the game and reopened questions about how the Longhorns are putting him in position to succeed.
For Texas, the larger issue is no longer just one bad stretch in one rivalry game. Mannings decision-making is under the microscope, but so is the play-calling around him, with the debate centering on whether the offense is asking too much at the wrong moments or not enough to keep him on the right track. As the Longhorns try to move past a painful loss, those questions are only going to get louder. [Read more 🡒]