Texas on the Brink: Longhorns Hold at No. 13 in Penultimate CFP Rankings, Still Outside Looking In
The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings are in, and for Texas, the news isn’t what they were hoping for. The Longhorns hold steady at No. 13 - one spot outside the 12-team playoff field - with just one more reveal left before Selection Sunday.
It’s a precarious position for a team that boasts one of the more compelling résumés in the country. Texas has three wins over top-10 opponents - Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt - a trio of victories that should carry serious weight in the committee room. But the Longhorns also carry three losses, and in this new 12-team format, that’s proving to be a costly blemish.
The Top Holds Strong, But Texas Can’t Crack the Field
At the top of the rankings, there was no movement. Ohio State remains the committee’s No. 1 team, followed by Indiana, Georgia, and Texas Tech - all currently projected to earn first-round byes in the expanded playoff.
Just behind that front four is a cluster of high-powered contenders: Oregon, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M round out the next wave. All appear comfortably slotted into the bracket, barring a shake-up on championship weekend.
Then comes the bubble - and that’s where Texas sits, stuck just outside the cut line. At 9-3, the Longhorns trail Miami, BYU, and Notre Dame, each of whom currently holds a spot in the playoff picture.
Strength of Record vs. Structure of the Format
Here’s where things get tricky. If the bracket were finalized today, Texas would be the first team out.
That’s despite a résumé that includes multiple top-10 wins - something not every team in front of them can claim. But the committee’s emphasis on total losses and the automatic-bid structure of the 12-team format is working against them.
Tulane (No. 20) and North Texas (No. 24) both earn automatic bids as conference champions, which pushes Texas further down the board. That’s the trade-off in this system: a wider field means more access, but it also means more variables - and sometimes, better teams get boxed out by the math.
What Needs to Happen Now
For Texas, the path to the playoff is narrow but not closed. Two things could change their fate:
- A team currently in the top 12 takes a loss this weekend, opening the door.
- The committee takes a closer look at Texas’ overall strength of record and rewards their elite wins over their three setbacks.
That’s the hope in Austin - that the full body of work gets its due. Because while the Longhorns haven’t been perfect, they’ve beaten some of the best teams in the country. And in a year where chaos has been a weekly guest, that should count for something.
Potential Matchups and What’s at Stake
If the bracket holds, Texas A&M would host No. 10 Notre Dame in what could be one of the most anticipated first-round matchups.
The winner there would move on to face No. 2 Indiana - a tall task, but the kind of stage this new format was built for.
Oregon, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Texas Tech all look safe for now, but a stumble from any of them could change the landscape quickly. And that’s exactly what Texas is banking on.
Final Word: Hanging in the Balance
The Longhorns are in that frustrating middle ground - clearly good enough to play with anyone in the country, but currently on the outside due to the structure of the system and a few key missteps along the way.
There’s still hope. But it’s going to take some movement at the top and a little faith that the committee sees the full picture.
Selection Sunday is coming. And for Texas, it’s going to be a long, anxious wait.