Steve Sarkisian is heading into his sixth season at Texas, and the pressure is starting to build. The Longhorns have gone 35-8 over the last three seasons-a strong record by most standards-but in Austin, missing the College Football Playoff this past year left a mark. And now, Sarkisian finds himself in a familiar spot: fighting to keep elite talent from slipping away, this time in the form of a top 2027 running back target who’s trending hard toward Oregon.
That target is 4-star back Jordon Roberts, and according to recruiting projections, the Ducks are in the driver’s seat. Rivals RPM has Oregon with a 95.5% chance of landing him, and Steve Wiltfong of Rivals is projecting Roberts to commit to Dan Lanning’s program. Texas is still in the mix-Roberts lists the Longhorns alongside Oregon, Michigan, and Notre Dame-but the momentum is clearly shifting west.
Roberts, an Arizona native, recently visited Eugene and came away impressed. And it’s not hard to see why.
Oregon is operating like a program built to win now. Lanning’s $65 million contract isn’t just a statement of faith-it’s an investment in sustained success.
Roberts sees a system that fits him. “The program is having success because they got the right coaches developing their players,” he told Wiltfong.
“And I think I can flourish there because their offense uses the running back in a multitude of ways.”
That’s the kind of quote that turns heads-and makes Texas fans sweat. Roberts did visit Austin back in June and was in the building for the Texas-Arkansas game, but there’s no official visit scheduled yet.
In recruiting, that kind of gap matters. Especially when a player is already talking like he’s found his fit elsewhere.
And Roberts is no ordinary prospect. At 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, he’s ranked as the No. 12 running back in the 2027 class by 247Sports and the top overall player in Arizona.
His sophomore season at Basha High was electric: 1,067 rushing yards on 152 carries, plus 32 catches for 358 yards. As a junior, he added another 761 yards on the ground.
He’s got the kind of versatility that modern offenses crave-and that Sarkisian’s system could certainly use.
Meanwhile, Texas did score a win on the recruiting trail this weekend, landing 2027 quarterback Ty Knutson. The 3-star prospect from Smithson Valley chose the Longhorns over South Carolina and Oklahoma State. He’s ranked No. 54 nationally at quarterback, and while that may not jump off the page, it’s clear Sarkisian sees something in him that others might not-yet.
That’s the gamble Texas is making right now: betting on upside, trusting the evaluations, and hoping the pieces come together. But make no mistake, this is a pivotal moment for Sarkisian’s program.
Twenty-six players transferred out this offseason. Nineteen came in, including the top-rated wide receiver in the portal, two running backs, and two linebackers.
That kind of roster churn tells a story-either the evaluations missed, or the team needed a serious talent upgrade. Realistically, it’s probably a bit of both.
The transfer portal can help plug holes, but it’s not a long-term solution. Programs that win consistently do so by stacking elite recruiting classes year after year.
That’s where players like Roberts come in. Losing him to Oregon wouldn’t be a death blow, but it would sting-especially if the Ducks continue trending upward.
As for Sarkisian, his seat isn’t hot yet, but it’s definitely warming. Back-to-back CFP appearances in three years have bought him some goodwill, but missing the Playoff two years in a row at Texas? That’s not a trend the program-or its fans-will tolerate for long.
The next few months will be telling. Texas has talent, no doubt.
But in college football, talent acquisition is a 365-day battle. And right now, Oregon might be winning one of the more important skirmishes.