The Texas Longhorns just notched one of their biggest wins of the season - a 27-17 road victory over No. 3 Texas A&M in Austin - and yet, as the dust settles, the playoff picture still feels murky.
Sitting at No. 16 in the College Football Playoff rankings heading into championship weekend, Texas is hoping Tuesday night brings some clarity. But with only one weekend left to make a statement, the Longhorns are in a tight spot.
Let’s break down where things stand and what’s working for - and against - Steve Sarkisian’s squad as the 12-team playoff field begins to take shape.
The Resume: Strong, but Crowded
Texas now has three wins that stand out on their playoff resume, including head-to-head victories over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt - two teams currently ranked ahead of them in both the AP Top 25 and the Coaches Poll. That’s where the frustration kicks in for Texas fans.
Beating a team should count for something, right? But the committee doesn’t just look at wins and losses.
They dig into the details.
The selection committee uses a handful of key criteria when comparing similar teams: strength of schedule, head-to-head results, outcomes against common opponents (with no emphasis on margin of victory), and any factors like key injuries or coaching absences that may have impacted performance. That last one looms large in the Oklahoma-Texas debate, with the committee reportedly weighing Sooners quarterback John Mateer’s health in their evaluations.
Poll Position: Still Chasing
Despite taking down A&M, the Longhorns sit at No. 14 in both major polls. That gives us a ballpark idea of where they might land in Tuesday’s CFP rankings. But with the Sooners and Commodores - both two-loss teams - still ahead of them, Texas has work to do.
The silver lining? A&M dropped to No. 7 in both polls after the loss, which could help Texas leapfrog Vanderbilt. But closing the gap with Oklahoma remains a challenge, especially with the committee factoring in health and other intangibles.
The Weekend That Was: Mostly Bad News
Texas needed chaos this past Saturday to climb the ladder. Instead, they got the opposite. Of the six games involving teams ranked ahead of the Longhorns, only one result broke their way.
That one silver lining? No.
1 Ohio State finally got over the hump against Michigan, snapping a four-game losing streak to the Wolverines with a convincing 27-9 win. That pushed Michigan behind Texas in the polls - a small, but meaningful shift.
Texas also managed to jump No. 13 Utah, despite Utah’s 31-21 win over Kansas. The Longhorns’ win over a top-three team carried more weight in the eyes of voters.
But that’s where the good news ends.
Bid Stealers and Missed Opportunities
One of the biggest thorns in Texas’ side is the ACC. With No.
18 Virginia and unranked Duke squaring off in the conference championship, one of those teams - both ranked behind Texas - is guaranteed an automatic bid. That’s a playoff spot gone, regardless of how the Longhorns finish.
Then came a string of results that didn’t do Texas any favors:
- No. 12 Miami routed No.
22 Pitt, 38-7, with a late touchdown padding the final score. The Canes aren’t in the ACC title game, so there’s a chance the ACC only gets one team in - but that doesn’t help Texas much right now.
- No. 11 BYU struggled early against UCF, leading just 17-14 at halftime before pulling away for a 41-21 win.
The Cougars’ strength of schedule (No. 32 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings) is a weak spot, especially compared to Texas. If BYU loses to No.
5 Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, Texas could realistically jump them.
- No. 9 Notre Dame blew out Stanford, 49-20, but here’s the twist - Notre Dame lost to the same A&M team that Texas just beat. That head-to-head transitive win might not be enough to vault the Horns ahead, but it’s something the committee could consider.
- No. 10 Alabama survived the Iron Bowl with a 27-20 win, scoring the go-ahead touchdown with under four minutes left. The Tide are heading to the SEC Championship, and while a loss to Georgia could open the door for someone, it’s unlikely the committee would punish Alabama enough to drop them behind Texas.
- No. 14 Vanderbilt delivered a gut punch to Texas’ hopes with a dominant 45-24 win over Tennessee. The Commodores outscored the Vols 24-3 in the second half and now hold a convincing win that will be tough for the committee to overlook.
What Needs to Happen
Texas still has a path, but it’s a narrow one. Wins by Georgia over Alabama and Texas Tech over BYU would help. But even then, the Longhorns might need more dominoes to fall.
As of now, oddsmakers have Texas at +2500 to make the playoff - a long shot, but not impossible. The committee’s next rankings will tell us just how much weight they’re giving to that win over A&M, and whether Texas is truly in the mix or just on the outside looking in.
Bottom line: Texas did its part on Friday night. Now it’s up to the playoff committee - and a little chaos - to do the rest.