Two weeks ago, Texas looked like a team cruising toward the playoff without much drama. The Longhorns were No. 1 in the country, and a postseason berth felt all but locked in.
Now? The road is a lot rougher.
Saturday’s 27-24 loss to Florida was Texas’ second straight defeat after blowing a double-digit lead, dropping Steve Sarkisian’s team to 4-2 overall and 1-2 in SEC play. The Longhorns have slipped to No. 19, and while they are still alive, the margin for error has disappeared.
The math is simple, and it’s not especially kind. Even if Texas wins out, that only gets the Longhorns to 7-2 in SEC play and 10-2 overall.
That kind of record would keep them in the conversation, but it does not ensure a spot in Atlanta. Georgia and Kentucky are sitting at 4-1 atop the SEC standings, while Tennessee and Ole Miss are right behind at 3-1.
So Texas no longer controls its own SEC destiny.
That said, this conference has already shown how unstable everything can be. Auburn went into Athens and knocked off No.
1 Georgia 27-24 on Saturday, ending the Bulldogs’ one-week stay on top. Ole Miss, after being blown out by Florida in September, turned around and thrashed Missouri 31-3.
And Missouri, which beat Florida 45-17 just two weeks earlier, got flattened.
Texas still has a path, but it will require winning out and getting help all over the league. In a season like this, that still counts for something.
If the Longhorns win the SEC Championship, their playoff spot is automatic. But given the current standings, an at-large bid looks like the more realistic route.
That’s at least still on the table because two-loss SEC teams can still get in.
And Texas has two results that should matter when the selection committee begins releasing rankings on Nov. 3: wins over No. 3 Ohio State and No.
11 Tennessee. Those victories haven’t vanished, even if the recent play has raised plenty of questions.
Right now, though, Texas doesn’t look like a playoff team. Another outing like Saturday’s would only deepen the problem, and another loss would make the climb much steeper.
The schedule doesn’t offer much relief. No.
7 Ole Miss comes to Austin next Saturday, then Texas plays Mississippi State on Halloween. After that, the Longhorns go on back-to-back road trips to No.
22 Missouri and No. 18 LSU before closing the regular season against Arkansas and Texas A&M in College Station.
That’s six straight conference games, with three against teams currently in the AP Top 25.
Run that stretch cleanly, and Texas would finish 10-2 with wins over Ohio State, Tennessee and possibly more ranked opponents, which would give the Longhorns a strong case for one of the playoff’s seven at-large spots.
Slip again, and the picture changes fast. Texas saw last season what three regular-season losses can do: it left Steve Sarkisian watching from the outside while Cheez-Its got the celebration instead of burnt-orange confetti.
At the moment, the Longhorns are not eliminated. ESPN still gives them a 41% chance to earn a bid. But after back-to-back losses, the résumé alone won’t carry them anymore.
Texas has six games left to prove it still belongs in the playoff race.
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Steve Sarkisian said the offense needs a full evaluation, and that includes the quarterback position. With KJ Lacey, Dia Bell and MJ Morris among the names being discussed as possible alternatives, the question around Manning is no longer just about development or patience. It has become part of a broader search for answers as Texas tries to stop the slide. [Read more 🡒]
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Colin Simmons gave Texas a real scare when the edge rusher went down with a lower-leg injury and had to be carted off for evaluation. The early word is that he suffered a sprained ankle, but the Longhorns are still waiting on a clearer picture as they turn their attention to Ole Miss.
Steve Sarkisian said the staff will keep evaluating Simmons, and the next official checkpoint should come with the SEC availability report later in the week. For a Texas defense that leans on Simmons impact off the edge, the timing makes this one worth watching closely as game week unfolds. [Read more 🡒]