The first College Football Playoff rankings arrive Tuesday, and for Texas they should serve as something close to a verdict on where the Longhorns really stand.
At 6-2 overall and 3-2 in SEC play, Texas still has plenty on the table. The playoff is still in play.
So is the SEC title game. But with four regular-season games left, the Longhorns are also at the point where every result starts to carry real weight.
The AP Poll has Texas at No. 10, which makes the Longhorns the fourth-highest-ranked SEC team behind Georgia at No. 2, Kentucky at No. 8 and Alabama at No.
- That matters because the committee’s first ranking will offer the clearest early read yet on how Texas is being viewed nationally.
Last season, Texas finished 9-3 and still missed the CFP. This year, a 10-2 finish will likely be the number the Longhorns need to feel secure in the 12-team field.
The résumé has some real strength. Texas owns three top-15 wins, with victories over Ohio State, Tennessee and Ole Miss. But the losses to Florida and Oklahoma are the kind of blemishes that can drag a team down fast when the committee starts stacking resumes side by side.
Steve Sarkisian has been consistent about how he wants teams judged. He has argued for more than just raw record, especially now that the SEC schedule has expanded and the league is producing more teams with multiple losses.
"Because here we are, last week at the halfway mark of conference play, and every (SEC) team already had a loss. And there are really good teams with multiple losses already, and so what is it really going to look like when there are 9-3 SEC teams compared to 10-2 or even 11-1 teams from other conferences," Sarkisian said. "How much value is going to be placed in that?"
After Texas beat Ohio State, Sarkisian also said he hoped the Buckeyes would not be punished for taking that game if they wound up 9-3. The same logic could end up applying to his own team if the Longhorns stumble again.
The schedule ahead leaves little margin for error. Texas still has two ranked opponents left, No.
19 Missouri and No. 15 LSU, before finishing with Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Win out, and the Longhorns should be in safe shape. Drop another game, and the path gets much more complicated.
For now, Tuesday’s rankings won’t decide anything. But they will tell Texas a lot about how the committee sees a team with three quality wins, two damaging losses, and a finish line that still demands clean football.
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