Texas heads into Baton Rouge with the better record and the clearer playoff path, but ESPN’s Football Power Index is not buying into the Longhorns as the safe pick on Saturday night.
The model actually gives LSU the edge in this SEC showdown, projecting the Tigers to win by 0.9 points. ESPN’s numbers also lean slightly toward the home team in terms of win probability, with LSU at 53 percent and Texas at 47 percent.
That’s a notable stance considering where both teams stand right now. Texas is 7-2 and riding a four-game winning streak, with a 34-20 win over Missouri adding another solid entry to its postseason case.
Arch Manning has helped keep the Longhorns moving in the right direction, but there are still real concerns up front. Texas has given up 27 sacks this season, and that protection issue could be a problem against an LSU defense that will be looking to pressure him.
The Longhorns also haven’t been especially dominant on the ground, averaging just 128 rushing yards per game. That gives LSU another area to attack if it can control the game at home.
For the Tigers, this is a chance to turn the page after a disappointing loss to Alabama. LSU is 6-3 and sitting at No. 21, outside the College Football Playoff bracket, which makes Saturday night feel like a swing game for its postseason hopes. The Tigers have been inconsistent, but they’ll get the benefit of playing in Baton Rouge, and that home setting could matter in a matchup this tight.
So while Texas arrives with more momentum and a better record, the FPI sees this as close to a coin flip. LSU’s narrow edge, home-field advantage and defensive potential make this one of the more intriguing games on the Saturday slate.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.
In Other News...
Texas May Be Getting Healthier Right Before Its Toughest Test Yet
Texas is heading into its matchup with LSU with some encouraging health news at just the right time. Several key starters are trending back into the mix, giving the Longhorns a better chance to be close to full strength for one of the biggest tests on their schedule. Defensive lineman Hero Kanu is still listed as questionable, but he is expected to play despite dealing with a partial bicep tear.
The rest of the injury picture also looks cleaner for Texas, with cornerbacks Kade Phillips and Graceson Littleton, defensive end Colin Simmons, and wide receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo not listed with injuries for the game. For a team about to face an LSU offense that can punish any weakness, getting healthier across both sides of the ball matters almost as much as the opponent itself. The only real question now is how close to full speed Texas can be when the lights come on. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Just Got An Early Test Without Madison Booker
Texas got a clear look at how deep its womens basketball roster can be in a 93-63 win over South Dakota State, but the bigger concern came when senior forward Madison Booker left with a lower back injury and did not return. The Longhorns still rolled behind sophomore guard Jayda Clark, who led the way with 24 points, and the performance offered an early glimpse of how the offense can hold up when one of its most important players is sidelined.
Vic Schaefer has leaned on Bookers toughness before, and this was the kind of early-season moment that can test a teams depth before the schedule gets any heavier. The encouraging part for Texas was the way its freshmen continued to develop while the game stayed in hand, giving the Longhorns something to build on even as they wait to learn more about Bookers status. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Private School Playoff Fight Just Reshaped The Entire Bracket
A court ruling this week sent an already messy Texas private-school football situation into the postseason calendar for a reset. Liberty Christian School went to court seeking a temporary restraining order against the Texas Association of Private and Parochial Schools after TAPPS said the school had used an ineligible player and had to forfeit games, a decision that threatened to knock the program out of the playoff picture.
A judge denied the restraining order, saying TAPPS had followed due process, and the fallout reached beyond one school. The Division I playoffs were pushed back to Nov. 14 to allow for schedule changes, with the underlying dispute centered on a transfer-player eligibility rule tied to participation on a 7-on-7 team coached by a Liberty Christian assistant coach. [Read more 🡒]