Week 7 ripped up the college football script, and the latest AP Poll reflects it. No.
1 Georgia fell to Auburn, No. 2 Notre Dame lost to No.
8 BYU, No. 3 Miami survived unranked Florida State in double overtime, No.
6 Alabama dropped to No. 14 Tennessee, No.
7 Texas was stunned by unranked Florida, and No. 4 Ohio State handed No.
5 Indiana its first loss in 22 games.
That chaos pushed Miami to No. 1 and BYU to No. 2 in the new poll, and now the focus shifts to Week 8. The task here is simple: pick the winner in every top-25 matchup, straight up, without worrying about the spread.
Indiana looks like a team ready to answer quickly. Michigan’s defense has held up, but the Wolverines’ offense has not matched it, and that imbalance is hard to ignore.
Michigan ranks 26th in adjusted EPA per play and 22nd in net success rate, while its offense sits 57th in success rate and 52nd in adjusted EPA per play. Indiana, meanwhile, still looks like one of the sport’s elite teams, checking in third nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and second in net yards per play.
The Hoosiers are the better team here, and the pick is Indiana.
BYU has been one of the biggest stories of the season, but there’s a sense that a loss is coming at some point - and this week is being lined up as the spot. UCF has a better profile than its record suggests, and the matchup gives the Knights a path.
BYU sits outside the top 30 in defensive success rate and has been vulnerable against the pass, even if its ground game is a strength. That matters because UCF’s best defensive trait is stopping the run, ranking 27th in opponent EPA per rush.
That makes the Knights a live pick to hand the Cougars their first surprise setback.
Tennessee gets the nod over South Carolina because this doesn’t look like the kind of game that plays into the Gamecocks’ hands. The teams that trouble Tennessee are usually defensive grinders that can drag the tempo down and turn things ugly.
South Carolina doesn’t fit that profile. Its defense ranks 115th in defensive success rate, and its offense is described as basically a lesser version of Tennessee’s.
That’s enough to side with the Volunteers.
Minnesota over Iowa comes down to style. Iowa’s formula can be dangerous, especially on the road, because the Hawkeyes can suffocate teams on the ground.
But this version of Iowa does not defend the pass well, ranking 105th in opponent EPA per pass. That’s a problem against a Minnesota offense that leans through the air and runs the ball on just 43.23% of plays, the 10th-lowest rate in college football.
In a game built on contrasting identities, the Golden Gophers have the edge.
The Texas-Ole Miss game is the most intriguing one on the board because both teams are leaning on different strengths. Ole Miss has the offense, Texas has the defense.
The Rebels’ attack is one of the better units in the country, while their defense remains a glaring weak point. Texas, on the other hand, has struggled to move the ball, but the overall profile still looks strong even after two straight losses.
The Longhorns rank ninth in net adjusted EPA per play and 26th in net success rate. With Texas at home, the call is to buy low on the Longhorns and fade the Rebels after a sell-high week.
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For Texas, that uncertainty matters because the programs quarterback plan suddenly feels a little less settled than it did a year ago. Manning could stay and try to grow inside the current setup, stay and do it under a revamped staff, or look elsewhere if he decides another program offers a better path for his development and draft stock. For now, the only clear thing is that his next move will shape more than just his own career. [Read more 🡒]