Texas may not get much time to enjoy Austin Goosby.
The five-star combo guard’s commitment gave Sean Miller and the Longhorns a major recruiting win, especially with Texas beating out blue-blood programs like Duke and UCLA for one of the nation’s top talents. But if the latest ESPN mock draft is any indication, Goosby’s stay in Austin could be a short one.
ESPN’s 2027 NBA Mock Draft projects Goosby as high as No. 13 overall, provided his freshman season unfolds the way scouts expect. That kind of stock usually doesn’t lead to a long college career. If Goosby is sitting in the top 15 again next summer, Texas could be looking at another one-and-done departure.
He wouldn’t be alone in that lane. ESPN’s mock has Kansas freshman Tyran Stokes going No. 1 overall, with Arkansas freshman Jordan Smith Jr. and Arizona freshman Caleb Holt also projected near the top of the board.
The first round is loaded with freshmen. Jeremy Woo’s mock includes 16 true freshmen going in Round 1, plus four more freshmen in the second round.
Goosby’s path would also fit a familiar Texas script. The Longhorns have seen elite one-and-done talent come through before, most notably Kevin Durant, who spent one season in Austin before launching his historic NBA career. More recently, Tre Johnson left after one year on the 40 Acres and headed to the Washington Wizards in 2025.
For Texas, that’s the tradeoff that comes with landing elite recruits. Programs like Duke and North Carolina have lived with it for years, and the Longhorns may be next in line if Goosby’s freshman season pushes him into the lottery.
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