As the countdown to New Year’s Eve ticks down, so does the wait for one of the more intriguing non-Playoff matchups of bowl season: Michigan vs. Texas in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl.
Both teams came into the final weeks of the 2025 season with College Football Playoff aspirations, only to fall just short. Now, they’ll close out the year in Orlando with a chance to set the tone for 2026.
Don’t let the lack of Playoff stakes fool you-this game matters. For Michigan, it’s a chance to showcase a physical identity that’s still very much intact despite a few roster shakeups. For Texas, it’s a final exam for a young core led by quarterback Arch Manning, who’s looking to cap his breakout campaign with a statement win.
Let’s break down what Michigan brings to the table-and why Texas will have its hands full.
1. Michigan’s Ground Game is the Real Deal
Michigan may have landed the No. 1 overall recruit in quarterback Bryce Underwood, but make no mistake: this offense runs through its backfield.
The Wolverines finished the regular season ranked 15th in the nation in rushing, averaging around 213 yards per game. And they did it with a two-headed monster in Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes.
Haynes opened the season as the lead back and was delivering on expectations before an October injury sidelined him for the year. But Michigan didn’t miss a beat. Marshall stepped in and kept the chains moving with the same downhill physicality and burst.
Together, the duo combined for 1,789 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns, averaging a gaudy 6.6 yards per carry. That kind of efficiency speaks not just to their talent, but to the push Michigan gets up front.
And don’t forget about Underwood’s legs. While the Wolverines have kept his arm under wraps (more on that in a moment), he’s chipped in 323 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. He’s not just a pocket passer waiting to be unwrapped-he’s a dual-threat option who adds another wrinkle to Michigan’s rushing attack.
Even if Haynes doesn’t suit up for the bowl game, Texas’ front seven will need to be locked in. This is a run game that punishes missed assignments and wears down defenses over four quarters.
2. Defense is Still Michigan’s Calling Card
If Michigan’s offense is built to control the clock, their defense is built to make every possession count. The Wolverines allowed just 18.7 points per game this season, tied for 16th nationally, and held more than half of their conference opponents under 20 points.
The foundation of that success? A suffocating run defense.
Michigan gave up just over 100 rushing yards per game, ranking 14th in the country. That’s the kind of front that forces teams to throw more than they want to-and that’s where mistakes tend to happen.
Yes, the Wolverines will be without a couple of key names in Derrick Moore and Jaishawn Barham, both of whom made their presence felt throughout the year. But the core of this defense remains intact, and they’ll be eager to prove they can still dominate without all their stars.
For Arch Manning and the Longhorns offense, this is a big test. Michigan doesn’t blitz recklessly, but they’re fundamentally sound and rarely out of position. If Texas wants to move the ball, it’ll take more than just talent-it’ll take discipline, patience, and smart decision-making.
3. A Conservative Passing Attack Could Be a Break for Texas
This is where things get interesting.
Despite having one of the most hyped quarterback recruits in recent memory, Michigan kept things surprisingly conservative through the air. Underwood attempted fewer than 300 passes this season-by comparison, Arch Manning threw 370.
That’s not a knock on Underwood’s talent. It’s more a reflection of Michigan’s offensive philosophy: pound the rock, control the tempo, and avoid turnovers. It’s old-school football, and it worked well enough to keep them in the Playoff hunt until the final week.
But with Steve Casula stepping in as Michigan’s new play caller for the Citrus Bowl, there’s some curiosity about whether the Wolverines might open things up a bit. Still, all signs point to Michigan sticking with what got them here.
That could be a break for Texas’ young secondary, which has had its share of growing pains this season. If Michigan stays run-heavy and cautious in the passing game, it limits the kind of big-play threats that have burned the Longhorns in recent weeks.
Still, don’t let the low volume fool you-Underwood can make throws when called upon. If Texas sells out to stop the run, Michigan may look to hit a few shots over the top. The Longhorns will need to stay disciplined on the back end.
Bottom Line: This Citrus Bowl matchup is a contrast in styles. Michigan brings a physical, run-first identity and a defense that thrives on limiting mistakes. Texas counters with a more dynamic offense and a young quarterback who’s growing into the moment.
It may not be the Playoff stage either team hoped for, but make no mistake-this one matters. And whoever walks off the field with a win won’t just be closing out 2025 on a high note-they’ll be setting the tone for what could be a massive 2026.