A month into the season, Texas’ remaining schedule looks different than it did in August. Some opponents have surged.
Others have slipped hard. The result is a slate that feels less predictable now than it did when the Longhorns were first mapped out as the No. 1 team in the country.
Texas is 4-0 and had the weekend off, with eight regular-season games left. The better gauge here is not just what happened Saturday, but how each team has moved relative to preseason expectations. One ugly loss can change the mood around a matchup, but it does not wipe out the bigger picture.
The sharpest drop belongs to Oklahoma, Texas’ Oct. 10 opponent in Dallas. The Sooners opened at No. 10 in the AP poll and were picked seventh in the SEC, but they are now 2-2 and unranked after scoring only 23 points combined in losses at Michigan and Georgia.
Quarterback John Mateer has six turnovers in his last three games. Brent Venables said he had considered a change against Georgia and then said last week, “ John’s our starting quarterback.”
The backups have been getting more practice work, though Venables still has not ruled them out against Texas. Instead of the top-10 contender projected in August, Texas gets a team still trying to find itself on offense.
Florida, which visits Austin on Oct. 17, is in a very different place than it was before the season. Jon Sumrall’s first Gators team was picked ninth and started outside the AP poll, but it has climbed to No. 16 and 4-1 with a win at Auburn and a 52-28 rout of then-No.
4 Ole Miss. Still, Saturday’s 45-17 loss at Missouri exposed a clear weakness.
After rushing for 302 yards a week earlier, Florida managed only 42 yards on 25 carries, including 13 yards on 12 attempts for Jaden Baugh. The Gators also were without receiver Vernell Brown III.
“They played with physicality,” Sumrall said of Missouri. Florida remains ahead of its preseason projection, but Missouri showed Texas a simple formula: slow Baugh down and force Aaron Philo to carry the offense.
Ole Miss comes to Austin on Oct. 24 still ranked No. 9 and still carrying the kind of wins that matter, with victories over then-No. 24 Louisville and then-No.
7 LSU. But the defense has started to look vulnerable.
Before Florida ran for 302 yards in a 52-28 win on Sept. 26, the Rebels were allowing 159 rushing yards per game. Through four games, that number has climbed to 194.8 rushing yards and 30.8 points allowed.
After the loss, Pete Golding said the bye gave the staff time to take another look. “We have some guys to look at to play better football.”
The wins still count. The run defense is what Texas gets to attack.
Mississippi State is another team whose stock has moved up, even after a rough Saturday. The Bulldogs were picked 15th, ahead of only Arkansas, and yet they are 4-1 and 2-1 in the SEC with comeback wins at South Carolina and against Missouri, the same Missouri team that just hammered Florida.
Alabama, though, showed the gap that still exists. The Tide scored two touchdowns in 71 seconds early and rolled to a 56-23 win.
Quarterback Kamario Taylor, dealing with a lower-leg injury from the Missouri game, threw two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, lost a fumble and left in the fourth quarter. Running back Fluff Bothwell lasted one carry.
Jeff Lebby said Taylor is day-to-day. State has an open date, then visits LSU on Oct. 17, hosts Oklahoma on Oct. 24 and comes to Austin on Halloween.
Missouri, which heads to Austin on Nov. 7, has turned one huge result into a major jump. The Tigers opened at No. 25 and were picked 10th in the SEC.
A week ago, they let a 24-17 fourth-quarter lead slip away at Mississippi State. Now they are up to No. 14 at 4-1 after beating then-No.
8 Florida by 28 and snapping a nine-game losing streak against ranked teams. Austin Simmons went 23-of-30 for 340 yards and two touchdowns, Jamal Roberts ran for 211 yards and three scores, and the defense held a Florida rushing attack that had been averaging 260 yards to 42 yards, all without starting edge rushers Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen.
Faurot Field suddenly looks like one of the toughest remaining stops on Texas’ schedule.
LSU, which visits Baton Rouge on Nov. 14, sits in the middle of the pack on this stock watch. The Tigers opened at No. 11 and were picked fifth in the SEC.
They are now No. 10 and 4-1 after a 63-14 win over McNeese. There’s a case for a bump: a 51-10 win over Clemson, a 35-6 rout of Texas A&M in which Marcel Reed was held to 106 passing yards, and a competitive 32-24 loss at Ole Miss when both teams were in the top 10.
But the injury list matters, too. Charles Ross II tore his ACL against A&M and is out for the season.
Whit Weeks fractured his fibula in the same game; a reported six-week recovery target could get him back before Texas, but that is not a confirmed return date. Sam Leavitt played against McNeese despite a lingering hamstring injury.
For now, the performances carry more weight than the uncertainty, but only barely.
Arkansas, which comes to Austin on Nov. 21, still looks like Texas’ most favorable remaining matchup. Ryan Silverfield’s first Razorbacks team was picked last, so there was not much room to fall, but the results have been rough.
Arkansas is 2-3 with wins over North Alabama and Tulsa, and its losses have followed a familiar pattern: 43-10 at then-No. 20 Utah, 45-17 to No.
2 Georgia, and 34-7 at Texas A&M. That works out to an average defeat of almost 30 points against Power Four opponents.
Texas A&M closes the regular season on Nov. 27 in College Station, and no team on this list has had a more dramatic slide from preseason expectations. The Aggies opened at No. 8 after an 11-2 season and a College Football Playoff berth, and the SEC media picked them fourth.
They lost 31-21 at home to Kentucky while ranked No. 9, then fell 35-6 at LSU without scoring a touchdown and dropped out of the Sept. 27 AP poll without a single vote.
Saturday’s 34-7 win over Arkansas, with Reed running for 66 yards and a score, steadied them at 3-2 and 1-2 in the SEC. Beating the team picked last stops the skid.
It does not erase the distance between this team and where it was supposed to be.
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