Texas’ season could be heading toward a far harsher Steve Sarkisian conversation than anyone wanted to have a few months ago.
For a long stretch, the case for keeping Sarkisian at Texas was easy enough to make. A coaching move would have come with a massive financial hit, and the rebuild he’s overseen gave him plenty of goodwill. But that argument gets weaker when the results stop matching the investment.
Texas has poured serious resources into assembling a roster built to chase championships, yet the Longhorns are once again fighting to meet expectations. The more alarming piece is at quarterback, where Sarkisian - long viewed as one of the sport’s best offensive minds - is facing growing scrutiny over what he’s gotten from two highly touted passers.
Quinn Ewers was the first issue. Plenty of people were willing to chalk up his uneven path to injuries and the way they interrupted his development, even if he never became the star many expected when he arrived in Austin. Now Arch Manning, another former five-star prospect, is having his own issues living up to the massive hype around him.
Put those together, and it starts to look less like bad luck and more like a pattern. If Sarkisian can’t consistently turn elite quarterback talent into elite production, the question for Texas changes fast: how much longer does he deserve the benefit of the doubt?
That’s why the discussion around his future feels different now than it did just a few months ago. And if Texas keeps slipping late in the year, that talk is only going to get louder. CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford has already pointed to a less-than-ideal ending between Sarkisian and Texas this season.
A loss to Texas A&M could be the final straw for Steve Sarkisian
Crawford’s call that an 8-4 season could mark the end for Sarkisian in Austin is a bold one, but it doesn’t come out of nowhere.
There are still multiple ways Texas could close the season, and not every path would automatically force a coaching change. Even so, another disappointing finish would make Sarkisian’s standing much harder to defend.
A 6-6 record would be especially tough to explain. For a program that has invested so heavily in football, barely getting to bowl eligibility would be a stunning letdown. At that point, the money attached to a firing might matter less than the damage another underwhelming year would do to the program’s reputation.
A 7-5 or 8-4 finish would land differently. Those records still wouldn’t meet the standard Texas expects, but Sarkisian could still lean on the fact that he has helped push the Longhorns back into national championship contention.
Even then, the pressure wouldn’t disappear. It would just carry over into 2027, with almost no room for error.
There is, however, one result that could change the entire feel of the conversation no matter what the final record says.
If Texas finishes 8-4 and one of those losses comes against Texas A&M, the situation gets a lot more volatile.
That wouldn’t just be another loss on Sarkisian’s record. It would give an already frustrated fan base another reason to question whether he’s the right coach to keep leading the program, especially if Texas has already slipped out of the College Football Playoff race.
Rivalry losses have a way of reshaping how a season is remembered, and Texas A&M is the kind of opponent that could turn a manageable year into something much harder to survive. The Aggies came in as a favorite in the SEC, but that has since looked like false hope. Losing to that team would make for a disastrous finish.
There’s still no sign that Texas has made a decision or even truly opened the door to moving on from Sarkisian. The buyout remains a major obstacle. But if the Longhorns limp to eight wins and end the regular season by losing to their biggest in-state rival, it becomes fair to ask whether even that price tag would be enough to keep him in place.
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