College football’s two-loss tier is crowded, messy and, this year, still very much alive in the Playoff picture. With the expanded bracket and tougher conference slates making defeats harder to avoid, a handful of teams carrying two losses still have real paths forward. Others are already fading out of the conversation.
Duke sits near the bottom of the group, and the schedule doesn’t offer much comfort. The Blue Devils still have to play at both No.
1 Miami and No. 14 Wake Forest, and their losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina make them look like one of the weaker two-loss teams in the bunch.
Cincinnati is in rough shape too. The Bearcats still have No.
6 Utah, No. 8 BYU and No.
18 Houston ahead of them, and their résumé isn’t exactly shouting contender. A narrow escape against Miami of Ohio in Week 3 and a 27-point loss to Arizona leave them looking more like a team headed out of CFP contention than one rising into it.
Virginia Tech has a similar problem. The Hokies have no marquee win to lean on, and losses to Cal and Pittsburgh make the profile hard to sell.
With trips still looming to No. 19 SMU and No.
1 Miami, there’s not much evidence that Tech is about to make a serious jump.
Nebraska, though, is a different kind of frustrating. The Huskers have lost by three points to both Indiana and Oregon, which means they’ve stayed close to top competition. Their road still includes a home date with Ohio State, and they could really use a statement win to strengthen their case.
Iowa’s season has been uneven, but not without bright spots. The Hawkeyes are coming off a loss to Minnesota, and ranked Wisconsin and Northwestern still sit ahead. At the same time, the wins over Michigan and Iowa State remain the kind of results that keep a team in the conversation.
USC is slipping quickly. The Trojans just dropped out of the top 25 after losing to Wisconsin, and the path ahead is brutal: three of their four remaining games come against teams in the top 7 of the latest AP poll.
Missouri has a couple of notable results, but the overall shape of the résumé is working against them. The Tigers were beaten by 28 points by Ole Miss and also lost to Mississippi State. Their best moment so far is a 28-point win over Florida, but with Texas, Georgia and Kentucky still on the schedule, the road back into serious CFP talk looks steep.
Minnesota has some juice after beating Iowa, but the calendar hasn’t gotten any easier. The Golden Gophers still have to go to Indiana and Wisconsin, and they also have home games left against No.
7 UCLA and No. 20 Northwestern.
Florida’s profile is one of the most uneven in the group. The Gators have wins over Texas and Ole Miss, but they also got blown out by Missouri and lost by 19 to South Carolina. With Georgia and Kentucky coming in the next three games, the early shine could fade fast.
Oklahoma State is sitting at No. 24 and still has a real opening. The Cowboys may need to win out, including a victory over No.
13 Texas Tech, but the path isn’t dead. Their Week 2 win over Oregon drew plenty of attention, and the three-point loss to Houston doesn’t damage them nearly as much as the Week 1 loss to Tulsa does.
Even so, the CFP door is still open.
Wisconsin is in a strong position among the two-loss teams. The Badgers are 5-2, and there isn’t a ranked team left on the schedule. Iowa and Minnesota are the toughest remaining opponents, but the wins over USC and Penn State give Wisconsin a sturdy foundation.
Tennessee has a case for being even higher. The Vols beat Alabama by 16 points, and that kind of result matters. Their losses to Texas and South Carolina are real blemishes, but with Kentucky and LSU still ahead, Tennessee still has a solid shot at a Playoff berth.
Ole Miss might have been slotted higher if not for the latest setback. The Rebels just lost to Texas, but wins over LSU and Missouri keep them firmly in the mix. The biggest challenge left is a game with Georgia in Week 10.
Texas has worked its way back into the picture after taking back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida. The Longhorns answered with a win over Ole Miss, and if they handle business and beat LSU in mid-November, their CFP landing spot should look much better.
Alabama remains one of the heavyweight names in this entire group. The Tide absorbed back-to-back losses to Georgia and Tennessee, but they’re still very much in the hunt. Their trip to LSU could go a long way toward showing which team really sits at the top of the two-loss heap.
And then there’s Missouri, which at this point is still riding the energy of an impressive win over Auburn. The Tigers still have Alabama, Texas and Tennessee left, giving them a chance to stack marquee victories quickly. The question hanging over them now: Are Kiffin and Sam Leavitt ready?
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