The 12-team College Football Playoff has already changed the sport’s postseason, but one question still hangs over the format: can a team get in with three regular-season losses?
ESPN’s Paul Finebaum thinks the answer could be yes, and he pointed to two programs that have the clearest path. On "The Paul Finebaum Show," he said Texas and Oklahoma would be the strongest candidates if they finish 9-3.
"There are a couple of teams that would have a really good shot at making it at 9-3," Finebaum said. "Texas would be one.
Oklahoma would be another. To get in with three losses, you better have played a significant schedule and nonconference.
I think those are the two. LSU, probably because of playing Clemson."
That schedule piece is the whole story. Oklahoma’s trip to Michigan in Ann Arbor gives the Sooners a major nonconference test, while Texas will host Ohio State in Austin. Both teams also have to navigate nine SEC opponents after the league moved to that format this season.
LSU was also mentioned as a possible three-loss team, thanks to its matchup with Clemson. But that case depends heavily on what the Tigers look like this season. If Clemson has another year like last season, when it went 7-6, that game won’t carry nearly as much weight for LSU.
The expanded playoff has already opened the door for more teams, but no program has made it in with three or more losses unless it got an automatic bid or that third defeat came in its conference championship game. Clemson became the first three-loss team to get in after winning the ACC Championship Game in 2024 in the final seconds, and Alabama followed last season when its third loss came against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
Finebaum’s point is simple: if a team wants to survive with three losses, the résumé has to be loaded. Oklahoma and Texas have the kind of schedules that could make that possible, especially if they stack quality wins along the way. LSU, too, could stay in the conversation, but only if Clemson gives that matchup real value.
The 2026 season may end up being the first real test of whether a three-loss team can land an at-large playoff spot. For now, Oklahoma and Texas look like the best bets to try it.
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