Ohio State Suddenly Has A CFP Scheduling Problem Fans Will Debate

With the rise of the College Football Playoff, the risk of scheduling tough non-conference games like Ohio State, Oregon, and Oklahoma may now outweigh the rewards.

The idea behind big non-conference showdowns is simple: put two ambitious programs on the same field, let the game breathe, and trust the payoff will be worth the danger. On Saturday, Oklahoma State and Oregon gave college football exactly that kind of night - and may have handed the sport another reason to keep debating whether these matchups are still worth the gamble.

Oklahoma State’s 39-31 win over Oregon had all the theater you’d want from a game that was supposed to matter. It also came with a reminder that the consequences can linger well beyond the final whistle.

The Cowboys were not viewed as a marquee opponent when the game kicked off. They had lost 12 straight and had been crushed 69-3 at Oregon the year before.

But the matchup was never built for the moment the teams found themselves in on Saturday. The home-and-home agreement was made in 2018, when Oklahoma State had spent more than a decade as a major presence under Mike Gundy and Oregon was just beginning a run that has kept it near the top of the sport for most of the time since. Back then, both schools were willing to put their name on the line for the sake of the spectacle.

That calculus may be changing. The College Football Playoff has altered the risk-reward equation, and the early-season loss that used to feel manageable can now hang over a team for months. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said as much before his team’s 17-10 loss at Michigan.

“I would guess there's less and less teams wanting to do that, playing (tough games in) non-conference … But we're playing," he said. "There's a lot of recruiting (benefit), and certainly it gets our guys ready from a league standpoint and a preparation standpoint.”

Texas has already lived through the downside. The Longhorns were left out of the playoff last year, in part because of their loss at Ohio State to open the season. Steve Sarkisian made his frustration clear at SEC Media Days, arguing that teams should not be punished for taking the challenge.

"I'm torn because I have two thoughts on this," Sarkisian said at SEC Media Days. "One is if we beat Ohio State last year, surely we're in a much better position when it comes to the playoffs, but on the other side of it is, if I don't play Ohio State and I play Jones Junior High, and we're 10-2 and our two losses are to Georgia and Florida, we're a playoff team.

"But like anything in this world, if you want to be really good at something, you've got to take risk."

Now the Buckeyes are the ones under the microscope. Texas beat Ohio State 24-23 on Saturday night, and suddenly Ryan Day’s team has a schedule that could get complicated fast, with Indiana, USC, Oregon and Michigan still ahead. A few slips could turn that opening loss into a much bigger problem.

Venables still sees value in the test itself.

“You talk about adversity and poise under pressure every single day," he said. "Whether it's home or away, chaos on game day is very real. You like the new challenge of what it can do for your team on the season.”

Oregon coach Dan Lanning kept his focus on the road ahead after the loss.

“There's a lot of things that you can look at and evaluate and say, okay, let's go to work,” he said. “Ultimately, on the same note, every single goal is still in front of us, right? We control our destiny.”

That leaves the sport waiting for the next ripple. If Oregon, Oklahoma and Ohio State all take a couple of conference losses, the playoff committee will be deciding more than which teams get in. It will also be signaling whether these high-stakes non-conference games - the kind that come down to the wire - are still a smart bet.

Sarkisian put it plainly when asked at SEC Media Days about Notre Dame in 2028 and 2029.

"Is the juice worth the squeeze or not? That's what we're all tasked with," he said.

"So I don't know yet about Notre Dame. We'll see, because I think the committee has to show us what happens now and what's the value that they're placing on strength of schedule, and are we going to let a 9-3 team in as an at-large?

We'll find out, and I think this year will be a great test to that of what that looks like."

After Saturday, that question sounds even louder.

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Steve Sarkisians team leaned into the moment and kept the pressure on the top-ranked Buckeyes until the game finally tilted Texas way. Senior running back Hollywood Smothers delivered the decisive score, capping the comeback and sending the stadium into a celebration that matched the size of the opponent and the size of the stage. For Longhorn fans, it was the kind of opening-night statement that does not just count in the standings, it lingers. [Read more 🡒]