Oklahoma’s last-second 27-24 stunner over No. 1 Texas on Saturday was the kind of rivalry chaos college football lives for. The Longhorns blew a 10-point lead, the Sooners walked off with a field goal, and a game that looked like it should have been in Texas’ pocket turned into a brutal reminder that rankings don’t matter much when these two meet.
Still, the loss doesn’t slam the door on Texas’ College Football Playoff hopes. Not even close.
The CBS Sports College Football Playoff Forecaster still gives the Longhorns a 66.8% chance to make the field, even after the defeat to Oklahoma. That’s because Texas can still survive with a third loss and remain in the at-large conversation. A three-loss team has never made the 12-team playoff, but Texas would be the likeliest program to break that ground if it finishes 9-3.
The schedule leaves plenty of room for more drama. Four of Texas’ next five opponents are projected to be ranked in the Week 7 AP poll, and six of the final seven have spent time inside the top 16 this season. If the Longhorns don’t clean things up fast, Saturday may not be their last stumble.
But Texas also has something most teams can’t match: that Week 2 win over No. 5 Ohio State. That result still carries major weight and isn’t fading anytime soon.
At 10-2, Texas would almost certainly be safe. The CBS Sports CFP Forecaster gives a two-loss Longhorns team a 100% chance to make the playoff.
That would put Texas in a much stronger position than last year’s Vanderbilt team, which missed the 12-team field as a 2-loss SEC squad. Texas would bring a better win portfolio, with multiple victories over teams that should be in the CFP committee’s rankings if the Longhorns get to 10-2.
Even after the Oklahoma loss, Texas’ overall resume still looks strong. The Longhorns came into Week 6 with a big lead in the CBS Sports 138 resume ranking, and a neutral-site loss to an Oklahoma team that should land inside the top 40 next week won’t knock them far.
With the Ohio State win and the road victory at Tennessee in Week 4, Texas has built a resume with some real shine on it. After all the Week 6 results are sorted out, the Longhorns should still sit with a top-five resume.
That matters because the road ahead is loaded. If Texas takes more losses to teams like No.
9 Ole Miss, No. 17 Mississippi State, No.
14 Missouri or No. 14 LSU, those defeats won’t automatically wreck the profile.
The quality of the schedule gives the Longhorns a cushion other teams simply don’t have.
At 9-3, things get trickier, but Texas would still have a strong argument. If every SEC team ended up 9-3, only Oklahoma would rate ahead of Texas in season-long resume score. And even that scenario is complicated, since it would be a surprise if the Sooners reached Selection Sunday with only three losses.
The committee could get a real test if it has to compare a three-loss Texas team with a two-loss Big Ten team or a two-loss SEC team that played a much softer schedule. Based on the landscape heading into Week 6, Texas would rank ahead of possible two-loss Big Ten teams like UCLA, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Northwestern in a merit-based resume evaluation. Ohio State and Oregon, both with two losses, would sit slightly ahead of Texas.
Texas would also have a credible case against potential two-loss SEC teams such as Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia because of the gap in schedule strength. The SEC’s nine-game league schedule makes life tougher, but it also gives teams with three losses something to lean on.
For Texas, the foundation is already there. The Longhorns can afford the Oklahoma loss and still walk out of Week 6 with a playoff-caliber resume intact.
In Other News...
Florida Just Got A Needed Recruiting Boost After That Ugly Loss
Floridas Week 6 loss to South Carolina stung on the field, but the Gators needed something positive quickly and got it on the recruiting trail. Five-star wide receiver Easton Royal, the No. 1 receiver in the 2027 class, flipped his commitment from Texas to Florida shortly after the defeat, giving the program a jolt at a time when the margin for good news felt pretty thin.
Royals decision matters beyond the headline because he is one of the most coveted prospects in the country and is expected to wrap up his recruitment soon. For Texas, it is a notable miss in a class that had been building momentum, while Florida gets a major boost as it tries to steady itself after slipping to 4-2 overall and 2-2 in the SEC. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Has A Discipline Problem Sarkisian Can't Ignore
The loss to Oklahoma brought Texas back to a familiar and frustrating theme: the Longhorns again hurt themselves with flags at the worst possible moments. They were penalized eight times for 61 yards, and the numbers fit the broader concern Steve Sarkisian has been trying to push to the front of the conversation. Even with a modest dip in penalties per game from last season, the Longhorns have not shaken the kind of mistakes that can swing a tight rivalry game.
Sarkisian has already pointed to penalties as the biggest issue the staff has to clean up, and he described the problem as a mix of effort-based plays and mental miscues. That makes the fix harder than simply preaching discipline in practice, because the issue is not coming from one place or one player group. Texas can outplay an opponent in stretches and still leave the door open if it keeps layering avoidable mistakes on top of itself. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Must Fix One Frustrating Problem After Red River Loss
The Red River loss left Texas with more than a blemish in the rivalry column. It also put a spotlight on the kind of offensive inconsistency that has followed the Longhorns at times this season, even with plenty of individual talent on the roster. Senior offensive lineman Trevor Goosby and coach Steve Sarkisian both pointed to the same basic task afterward: put the disappointment behind them and get the unit executing better.
Sarkisian also owned the responsibility for the offenses struggles, a notable admission from a coach who knows the standard in Austin does not leave much room for uneven Saturdays. The Longhorns have shown enough ability to suggest the ceiling is still there, but the next stretch will be about turning that talent into steadier production. For Texas, the frustration is not just the loss itself, but the feeling that the offense still has to prove it can hold up when the stage gets biggest. [Read more 🡒]