Arch Manning may be the biggest name in the 2027 NFL Draft conversation, but he’s not a lock to own the top spot.
That’s the reality as preseason big boards start rolling out before Week 1 of the college football season, with Texas set to open at home against Texas State on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Longhorns’ junior quarterback is drawing plenty of attention, but the evaluations around him are far from uniform.
The split is already clear among draft analysts. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has Manning as his QB1 on his preseason board. Todd McShay of The Ringer sees it differently, slotting Manning all the way down at QB4 behind Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and Oregon’s Dante Moore.
McShay still likes Manning’s talent. He gave him a grade of 92, which is firmly first-round territory.
But that number also says plenty about how deep this quarterback class looks right now. McShay said he has seven quarterbacks graded at 91 or better, adding that it is "something [he's] never had this early in the process."
Moore tops his board with a 95.
The bigger issue for Manning, though, is how unfinished his game still looks in the eyes of some evaluators.
"[Manning's] eyes, feet and overall process aren't consistently connected," wrote McShay for a story published Monday. "His mechanics can look clean and easy on one snap and completely different on the next.
And the biggest concern right now is ball placement. There are simply too many routine misses for a quarterback we're discussing as the No. 1 overall pick."
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. echoed that concern on Monday’s "First Draft," saying Manning has to be more exact with his throws instead of just "[putting] the ball in the area" and hoping a receiver makes the play.
The numbers back up the skepticism. Manning completed 61.4 percent of his passes last season, and even after accounting for drops and spikes, he still didn’t grade out as one of college football’s most accurate passers.
According to Pro Football Focus, his adjusted completion percentage of 73 ranked 72nd among 168 eligible quarterbacks. Ohio State sophomore Julian Sayin led that stat at 82.5.
There is reason to expect some growth, especially with wide receiver Cam Coleman now in the mix. Still, Manning’s passing production has not yet matched the kind of polish usually attached to a projected No. 1 overall quarterback.
He has played 25 games over three seasons at Texas and completed 62.3 percent of his throws. For comparison, Caleb Williams was at 65.9 percent through his first 25 college games at Oklahoma and USC before finishing at 66.9 percent and going first overall in the 2024 draft. That draft matched the record of six quarterbacks taken in 1983.
Williams had already taken over as a starter by that point after replacing Spencer Rattler during the 2021 season. Manning, by contrast, spent his first two seasons in Austin backing up Quinn Ewers.
That’s part of why the buzz around Manning feels bigger than the resume behind it right now. He remains a high-end prospect, but not yet the clean, finished passer that usually comes attached to a No. 1 overall pick. He’ll have to show more in 2026 to change that.
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