Last week’s batch of bold calls landed more often than not, and this week’s slate offers a fresh round of swings. Three of the four predictions from the first weekend of October came through: Missouri rolled Florida, Jeremiah Smith went off for 11 catches, 206 yards and two touchdowns against Iowa, and Minnesota took back the Little Brown Jug. BYU also got the win, though not by the blowout margin that was forecast.
Now comes another crack at the weekend ahead, with the same no-safety-net approach.
Start with the two road favorites sitting at 7.5 points: Indiana at Nebraska and Texas in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. Both matchups carry just enough wiggle room for a weird result, and both opponents are unranked, which only sharpens the upset watch.
Nebraska’s case is built on the idea that Matt Rhule’s team keeps getting underrated; ESPN’s Bill Connelly has the Cornhuskers at No. 12 in SP+. Oklahoma’s argument comes from the other side of the ball, with a defense ranked No. 2 in the SEC by yardage ready to bother a Texas offense that sits No. 12 in the league by that same measure.
Penn State gets the White Out treatment, but the bigger question is whether the Nittany Lions have actually shown their best version yet in year one under Matt Campbell. The defense, in particular, still feels like it has more to give.
Yes, the 413 yards allowed to Northwestern last Friday made noise, but Penn State also held Wisconsin to 120, and that’s the number worth leaning on. If the Wildcats outing really was the outlier, the Nittany Lions should be able to handle Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava well enough to keep control.
That sets up a much-needed rebound chance for Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht against a USC defense that should be vulnerable. Becht has had two rough weeks, but this looks like the kind of spot where he can reset. The call here is three touchdown passes, plus an interception and a fumble, with Penn State surviving a messy one 35-21.
One prediction doesn’t try to hide what it is: a record is in real danger. Sheppard enters the week as the nation’s third-leading rusher, and he draws the ACC’s worst run defense in Georgia Tech, which is giving up 189 yards a game on the ground.
The weather only adds to the setup, with remnants of Hurricane Isaias expected to bring rain to Atlanta and make the passing game harder to lean on. Duke running back Mataeo Durant owns the school’s single-game rushing record at 255 yards against Charlotte in 2021, but that mark is in jeopardy here.
The forecast is Sheppard topping it and becoming part of FBS’s 10th 300-yard rushing game of the decade.
The final call goes to NC State, a team that has already taken the long road back from two brutal early losses - a blowout at Virginia on Aug. 29 and a last-second collapse against Vanderbilt on Sept. 19.
That kind of start can flatten a season, but the Wolfpack’s win over Louisville last Saturday was enough to register as a surprise and shift the mood. Against Wake Forest, that momentum should matter.
NC State’s defense is still a mess - 89th in scoring - but the offenses in this rivalry matchup are close enough that the game could come down to details, and the weather should help keep things tight. Quarterback CJ Bailey has thrown an interception in three straight games, but this time the prediction is that he avoids the turnover.
The Wolfpack also lean on backup quarterback Will Wilson, who has six rushing touchdowns, as a useful complement. Put it together and NC State walks away with a 24-17 win.
In Other News...
Texas Gets A Rivalry Boost From A Familiar Face Returning
Hollywood Smothers has already become a useful part of Texas run game after arriving from Oklahoma by way of North Carolina State, and his presence has been felt in 2026 even with the Longhorns still sorting out their backfield. He missed a recent game because of a lower leg injury, but the timing of his return could hardly be better for a Texas team heading into one of the most charged dates on the schedule.
Smothers is healthy again and expected to be available for the Red River Rivalry against the Sooners, the program he once called home. For Texas, that adds both depth and a little extra bite to a matchup that rarely needs any help getting there. [Read more 🡒]
Red River Just Got More Personal For Texas In A New Way
The buildup to the Red River Rivalry already has plenty of familiar edge, but Texas is also dealing with a newer kind of familiarity on the other sideline. Parker Livingstone, a junior wide receiver, transferred from Texas to Oklahoma after the 2025 season, adding another layer to a matchup that always seems to find a way to feel personal. Steve Sarkisian has acknowledged the reality of letting Livingstone and other players move on, and now the Longhorns have to sort through those departures as part of the backdrop to one of the sports most emotional weekends.
Livingstone has not been as productive at Oklahoma so far this season, but his presence still gives Texas another reason to pay attention to who is lining up across from it. Arch Manning noted the personal dynamics that can come with former teammates facing each other, which only underscores how much this game can stretch beyond the scoreboard. For Texas, the rivalry now carries a little extra locker-room history, and the Longhorns will see exactly how that plays once the teams take the field. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Could Get A Huge Red River Boost At Perfect Time
A bye week can be a handy reset in October, and Texas may be getting the timing just right with the Red River showdown looming. The Longhorns are heading into the Oklahoma game with several key pieces trending back toward full health, including senior running back Hollywood Smothers and sophomore tight end Nick Townsend, while junior defensive back Xaiver Filsaime is in line to make his season debut.
For a rivalry game that often comes down to depth as much as star power, that kind of reinforcements matters. Texas is still navigating the usual injury uncertainty this time of year, with several players from both sides listed as questionable or unavailable, but the Longhorns at least appear to be moving in the right direction at the perfect moment. [Read more 🡒]