Texas heads into Week 10 with its season hanging in the balance, and the Longhorns are carrying Arch Manning into a road test against Missouri that could shape their College Football Playoff path.
Texas has already survived some turbulence this season. Back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida knocked the Longhorns off course, but wins over Ole Miss and Mississippi State have kept them in the top-10 of the AP Poll and still in the playoff mix. With four regular-season games left, Missouri and LSU stand out as the biggest hurdles.
Missouri is trying to keep its own playoff hopes from slipping away, but the Tigers enter this one with two losses and a difficult stretch still ahead. After Texas, they still have Georgia and Kentucky on the schedule, which leaves little room for error if they want to stay in the conversation. Their 31-3 loss to Ole Miss in Week 7 also showed how far they still have to go against the SEC’s better teams.
Manning remains the central figure in all of it. He’s coming off a three-score performance in Texas’ easy win over Mississippi State, and the Longhorns need that version of him to show up again.
The highs have been impressive, but the inconsistency has made him one of the more frustrating evaluations in the sport. Through eight games, he has completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 1,727 yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also adding 120 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.
That production matters even more now because every remaining game feels like a must-win for Texas. If the Longhorns run the table, the case should be strong, especially with wins over Ole Miss and Ohio State already on the résumé. But if Manning and the offense stumble in Columbia, the margin for error disappears fast.
Missouri has had its moments too. The Tigers picked up a big SEC win over Florida earlier this fall, and Austin Simmons has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Even so, Texas enters with an edge in adjusted EPA/Play and yards per play, and the Longhorns’ defense has been steady, allowing under 30 points in every game in 2026.
That’s why this matchup comes down to whether Texas can keep building on its recent surge. The Longhorns have been volatile, which makes them tough to trust against the spread, but the momentum from the last two weeks is enough to back them outright.
Prediction: Texas wins and stays alive in the College Football Playoff race.
In Other News...
Texas Is Getting A Missouri Team With One Less Distraction
Missouri has tried to quiet the noise around Eli Drinkwitz as the Tigers turn their attention to the stretch ahead, including a matchup with Texas. Drinkwitz addressed the Florida State opening directly in a press conference, saying he is not a candidate for the job and making the point clear enough to remove the speculation that can hang over a program this time of year.
For Texas, that means the Longhorns should see a Missouri team focused on football rather than on coaching carousel chatter. Drinkwitz already has long-term security after signing an extension through 2031, and with one of the sports bigger paychecks in hand, Missouri can keep its attention on the field as the schedule tightens. [Read more 🡒]
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Texas is heading into the first College Football Playoff reveal with a legitimate case to stay in the mix, even with two losses on the rsum. The Longhorns are projected to land among the 12 teams in the opening bracket, a sign that the committee could still value their overall body of work as the season turns toward its defining stretch.
The official unveiling comes with plenty of intrigue because the bracket will set the tone for the rest of the month, and the weekly rankings that follow will keep the pressure on every contender. For Texas, the early projection is encouraging, but it also means there is little room to relax as the chase for a playoff spot starts to sharpen. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Heads To Missouri With A Depth Problem Fans Will Feel
Texas is heading to Missouri for its second true road game of the season, and the trip comes with a roster hit that could be felt well beyond Saturday. Steve Sarkisian acknowledged the Longhorns will be undermanned, but he also pointed to the next wave of players as the group that has to absorb the load and keep the season moving.
The bigger concern is not just who is unavailable now, but how long the absences might linger. Injuries to Hollywood Smothers and Graceson Littleton may be serious enough to keep them out for the regular season, which would leave Texas leaning even harder on its depth at a point in the year when every road test starts to matter more. [Read more 🡒]