Three weeks into the 2026 college football season, the draft picture around Arch Manning and Trinidad Chambliss looks a lot different than it did in August.
Manning, the Texas junior quarterback, came into the year viewed as the stronger NFL prospect. Now, after a fast start by Chambliss at Ole Miss, the two are moving in opposite directions.
Chambliss helped the Rebels improve to 3-0 with a 32-24 win over LSU in Oxford, handing Lane Kiffin a victory in his return to the city. That performance pushed Chambliss to the front of the Heisman race at FanDuel Sportsbook, where he is now listed at +300. Manning sits at +1200.
That shift matters because quarterbacks have been the center of the award conversation lately. Three of the last four Heisman winners have been QBs, and two of them went on to become No. 1 overall picks in the NFL Draft: Chicago Bears third-year QB Caleb Williams and Las Vegas Raiders rookie QB Fernando Mendoza.
Manning’s early-season numbers have drawn scrutiny. In a story published Monday, CBS Sports’ Ryan Wilson pointed to several troubling stats and compared Manning’s production with the final college seasons of 24 first-round quarterbacks from 2019-25. The biggest red flags, Wilson noted, are Manning’s yards per attempt and completion percentage.
The sample size is still small - Manning has played only three games in 2026 - but the pressure is building. Texas is 3-0, and Manning helped deliver one major moment already, leading the Longhorns to a 24-23 comeback win over No.
7 Ohio State in Week 2. Outside of that, though, Wilson and others want more proof before treating him like a lock to go first overall.
"He entered the season with people assuming he'd be the first-overall pick," wrote Wilson. "The more immediate question: Can he start consistently playing like a first-round quarterback?"
Chambliss is making that easier to answer in the affirmative. Through Week 4, he ranks third among 16 eligible SEC quarterbacks in completion percentage at 70 percent and 10th in yards per attempt at 8.4. Both numbers are above average, and they’ve come against a stronger list of opponents than Manning has seen so far.
Ole Miss has already faced two Associated Press Top 25 teams: No. 10 LSU and No.
16 Louisville. Texas has played one ranked opponent, Ohio State.
The tests keep coming this weekend. Manning and No.
1 Texas visit No. 14 Tennessee on Saturday at noon ET on ABC.
Chambliss and No. 4 Ole Miss head to No.
21 Florida, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Chambliss’ rise has also caught the attention of evaluators beyond the numbers. CBS Sports’ Mike Renner believes his mix of poise and arm talent gives him a real chance to be an NFL starter, even at 6-foot-0 and 205 pounds. Other scouts, according to the report, would agree.
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