Kirk Herbstreit isn’t backing away from Texas. He just isn’t ready to hand the Longhorns the trophy before the games are played.
On The Pat McAfee Show this week, the ESPN college football analyst made it clear that his belief in Arch Manning and Steve Sarkisian’s roster comes with a warning label. Herbstreit agreed with the idea that Texas may have the deepest roster in the sport, but he quickly shifted to the part that has him uneasy: what happens when a team becomes the favorite everyone is talking about.
"I know they do. I'm a fan of Sark.
I'm a fan of Texas," Herbstreit said. "I'm not a fan of (what happened) last year, remember we had preseason Texas, LSU, Clemson, Penn State?
None of those teams could handle the pressure."
That line from Herbstreit points straight at the danger he sees. Texas has the talent, but being the trendy pick can turn into a burden once the season starts. He said as much when asked about the Longhorns’ ceiling.
"I feel like Texas is incredibly talented. This will probably be Sark's best team," Herbstreit said. "But can they handle week in and week out?"
Herbstreit also took a playful shot at Texas’ TikTok presence, comparing it unfavorably to Mississippi State, though he made clear he was talking about the content, not the roster.
The concern around Texas is not hard to understand when you look at the schedule. Phil Steele ranked the Longhorns’ 2026 slate as the toughest in the country, and it includes six preseason top-25 opponents. Texas opens against Ohio State in week two, then runs into Tennessee, Oklahoma in Dallas, Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M before any possible SEC Championship appearance.
That’s a brutal path for a team that went 10-3 last season and missed the College Football Playoff for the first time in three years under Sarkisian. Herbstreit pointed directly to that stretch when talking about the coach.
"Sark has been that close for three years," Herbstreit said.
A lot of the buzz still centers on Manning, who is entering his second full season as the starter after a first year that bounced from Heisman talk to heavy criticism and back again. Herbstreit has been consistent about the quarterback’s growth, and he doubled down in a separate conversation with On3’s Crain and Cone.
"He lived it, he experienced it, he survived it," Herbstreit said. "I'll be shocked when the dust settles if he's not the guy in the class."
Texas also made a major push in the transfer portal this offseason, adding players such as Auburn receiver Cam Coleman. Even with that boost, the Longhorns were still slotted second behind Georgia in 247Sports’ preseason SEC media poll, though they did receive five first-place votes to Georgia’s seven.
The talent is there. Herbstreit isn’t disputing that.
What he’s waiting to see is whether Texas can carry the weight that comes with being the team everybody expects to win. Last season’s letdown is exactly why he’s not ready to call it a lock.
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