Josh Pate’s latest college football forecast puts Notre Dame right at the center of the sport’s biggest stage.
The analyst went beyond picking a Playoff field and actually mapped out a champion, and his title-game call is Notre Dame over Texas. He has the Irish as his No. 1 CFP seed and, in his view, the team that finishes the job.
Pate’s projected path for Notre Dame is a demanding one. He has the Irish beating No. 8 seed Oregon in the quarterfinals, then surviving Indiana in a semifinal he called "the biggest occurence since the birth of Larry Bird in the state of Indiana," before finishing off Texas for the championship. He also described the Oregon matchup as part of "an insane second round, but projected the Irish for the pivotal victory."
The bracket Pate laid out includes Ohio State, Georgia, and Miami as the other top-four seeds, giving those teams the CFP double-bye. He projected BYU to claim the Big 12’s Playoff spot and Boise State to grab the Group of Five berth. The at-large selections in his field were Texas, Oklahoma, and LSU from the SEC, along with Indiana, Oregon, and USC from the Big Ten.
Even with Notre Dame sitting atop his forecast, Pate took a swipe at the schedule, saying, "It's almost like the schedule didn't matter once the Playoffs started."
That line lands because the Irish do not open with a gauntlet of elite opponents. Notre Dame is set to face just three teams that begin the season in the coaches’ poll top 25: No.
7 Miami at home, No. 15 BYU on the road, and No.
20 SMU at home.
Heading into the 2026 season, Notre Dame checks in at No. 5 in the coaches poll. The offense will have to replace Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but C.J.
Carr is back after throwing for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns as a redshirt freshman in 2025. Jordan Faison also returns after catching 49 passes for 640 yards last season.
The defense may be what keeps Marcus Freeman’s team in the hunt. Notre Dame has held opponents under 18 points per game in each of the last three seasons, and the Irish bring back key pieces like cornerback Leonard Moore and safety Tae Johnson.
Pate’s confidence in Notre Dame is clear, even while he charts a difficult route. He said he expects the Irish to carry the sting of being slighted by the CFP after the 2025 season, and that motivation could matter when 2026 arrives.
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