Ohio State took the kind of hit that changes the conversation fast.
The Buckeyes entered the season knowing their schedule left almost no room for mistakes, and after Texas walked out with the win, that reality is staring them in the face. Ryan Day’s team let the Longhorns linger into the second half, then watched Arch Manning and Texas explode for 21 fourth-quarter points to pull off the stunner. Now Ohio State’s playoff outlook is still alive, but the road back to the 12-team bracket is a lot less forgiving.
The good news for the Buckeyes is that the path is still there. The bad news is that the path is lined with ranked teams.
Ohio State’s toughest remaining games include trips to No. 21 Iowa on Oct.
3, No. 5 Indiana on Oct. 17 and No.
14 USC on Oct. 31, plus home dates with No. 6 Oregon on Nov. 7 and Michigan on Nov.
- That’s a brutal run for any team.
For a program with Ohio State’s expectations, it’s a weekly referendum.
There’s still a version of this season where the Buckeyes can afford another slip. A three-loss finish is at least possible, though that feels unlikely unless one of those defeats comes in the Big Ten Championship Game. More realistically, Ohio State probably needs to land somewhere in the 10-2 or 11-1 neighborhood to feel good about its playoff case.
An 11-1 finish would make the math simple: win out, take the Big Ten, and the Buckeyes are back in. That’s the cleanest route, and it’s still on the board. But with four games left against nationally ranked competition - and likely five if Michigan jumps back into the rankings this week - clean is not the word that fits this schedule.
The more likely lane is 10-2, with Ohio State taking one more loss and still reaching the Big Ten title game. That keeps the Buckeyes in the mix, though the cushion gets thinner every time they stumble. Even so, the idea of Ohio State dropping multiple games to unranked opponents isn’t the scenario anyone around this team expects.
A 9-3 finish is where things get dangerous. No three-loss team has made the CFP without playing in a conference championship game, and Ohio State would need a strong argument built on the quality of its schedule.
Texas would have to stay elite to keep that early loss looking as respectable as possible, and some of the Buckeyes’ other résumé points could lose shine if results elsewhere shift. Oregon’s Week 2 stumble already changes how much weight that matchup may carry later on, while Michigan could end up being the kind of marquee win that helps the case.
That said, if Ohio State finishes 9-3 and misses the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes could find themselves trapped in a crowded pile of deserving teams fighting for the last spots. That’s the danger of a schedule this loaded: it can help you, but it can also leave you with too many chances to be judged.
For now, the most important game left on the board is the road trip to Iowa.
Ohio State has a bye this week, then gets Kent State and Illinois before heading to Kinnick Stadium. The Buckeyes should be 3-1 by then, and that matchup on Oct. 3 could decide the tone of the rest of the season. If Ohio State loses there, the chances of navigating Indiana, USC and Oregon start looking awfully slim before the regular-season finale against Michigan.
A win over Iowa would give Ohio State a ranked victory and a much-needed boost before the schedule tightens in mid-October. A loss, and the Buckeyes’ margin for error could vanish in a hurry.
In Other News...
Texas Quieted One Big Sarkisian Concern Against Ohio State
For much of Steve Sarkisians tenure, Texas has lived with a familiar annoyance in the red zone, where the offense has sometimes moved the ball efficiently only to come away needing too many field goals. That backdrop made the latest showing against Oklahoma State worth watching closely, especially for a Longhorns attack that wants to turn yardage into finishing power when the field gets tight.
The encouraging part was not just the spacing or the play design, but the way Texas handled each of its scoring chances once it got inside the 20. The Longhorns kept finding answers in close, and the sequence suggested an offense still ironing out bigger questions but looking much more settled when it mattered most near the goal line. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Just Made The AP Poll Debate Very Real
Week 2 reshaped the national picture in a hurry, and Texas is right at the center of it. The Longhorns opened the season with one of the most important wins in the country, rallying past Ohio State in a game that immediately altered how the AP Top 25 conversation looks heading into the next poll. Around them, the results from Alabama, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, LSU and the Buckeyes all feed into a rankings shuffle that feels far more dramatic than it did a week ago.
For Texas, the debate is no longer just about being safely inside the top tier. The win over Ohio State gives the Longhorns a case to be viewed as one of the standard-bearers again, and the polling math now reflects that reality. Whether the voters are ready to put them back at the very top will be one of the most interesting questions when the new rankings come out, because the rsum argument is suddenly as strong as the brand name. [Read more 🡒]
Sarkisian Added One Awkward Twist To Texas Emotional Night
Texas victory over No. 1 Ohio State already had enough drama baked into it without the broadcast hiccup that followed Steve Sarkisian around on a memorable night. Technical difficulties kept the Longhorns coach from joining Laura Rutledge for a scheduled halftime interview on ESPN, leaving one of the games biggest voices out of the conversation while the biggest upset of the opening weekend was still unfolding.
The oddness didnt end there, either, as Sarkisians postgame exchange with Holly Rowe turned awkward before he walked off, adding an unusual coda to an emotional scene in Columbus. A Texas spokesperson later said ESPN technical issues were behind the halftime problem and also played a role after the game, which at least explains why a celebration night briefly veered into broadcast confusion. [Read more 🡒]