Texas gets Florida at the right time, and Florida walks into Austin with very little margin for error.
Steve Sarkisian is standing by his play-calling, and he’s not buying the criticism aimed at Arch Manning as the Longhorns head into Saturday’s matchup with the Gators. Manning’s uneven season has kept Texas’ offense from settling in, but this is the kind of opponent that can change the mood fast: Florida owns the SEC’s worst defense, and the Longhorns are looking to answer after last week’s loss to rival Oklahoma knocked them six spots in the AP Poll.
Florida, meanwhile, is sliding the wrong way in a hurry. The Gators have dropped back-to-back SEC games in blowout fashion and fallen out of the national rankings, with no clear fix in sight. Sumrall said progress is sometimes "dysfunctional" and agreed with some of the booing he experienced on the sideline of last week's loss to South Carolina.
That defensive mess is what makes this matchup so dangerous for Florida. Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons is leading college football with 9.5 sacks, and Florida already had trouble handling South Carolina’s Dylan Stewart. Simmons has been a wrecking ball off the edge, piling up five sacks in Texas’ win at Tennessee last month and establishing himself as the runaway favorite for SEC Defensive Player of the Year.
The numbers around Manning tell the story of Texas’ offensive unevenness. Against Power Four competition, he has thrown four touchdown passes and four interceptions.
Two of those picks came in the fourth quarter against Oklahoma, including a pick-six that flipped the game toward the Sooners. He’s also been sacked 12 times in five games, with 10 of those coming against Ohio State, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
Still, Florida’s defense is making it hard to picture a breakthrough on the other side. The Gators are last in the SEC in total defense, explosive plays allowed and pass defense, and sit 15th in scoring defense. Sumrall said this week he was taking a closer look at multiple areas of the team after what has undone the Gators’ 4-0 start.
There’s also the matter of last year’s meeting. Texas’ loss in Gainesville helped knock the Longhorns out of the College Football Playoff picture, and now Sarkisian’s team has another chance to deliver in what the source frames as a revenge spot.
Texas already handled Ohio State in Week 2 and remains in this week’s updated CFP projection with a first-round home game. Saturday is the next step if the Longhorns want to keep that path clear.
Date: Saturday, Oct. 17 | Time: 12 p.m.
ET
Location: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium -- Austin, Texas
The pick here leans Texas because Florida’s defense has been too leaky to trust. Manning has been inconsistent, but this is a matchup that should help settle the Longhorns’ passing game.
The Gators’ last two SEC games have exposed just how fragile things are on that side of the ball, and Texas should have the edge at home. Pick: Texas -10.5
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